成材：宏观影响增强短期承压

Group 1 - Report's investment rating of the industry: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: The industry is operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [3] Group 3 - Macro situation: The U.S. tariff war against China has reignited, causing significant macro - level fluctuations and potentially pressuring steel products [2] - Steel production data: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.55%, a 0.10 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 56.28%, a 0.43 - percentage - point decrease; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. In late September, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.889 million tons, a daily output decrease of 8.9% compared to the previous period; the steel inventory was 14.67 million tons, a 4.1% decrease from the previous ten - day period and an 18.6% increase from the beginning of the year [2] - Market performance: Last week, there were only two trading days, and finished products fluctuated and rebounded slightly, continuing to consolidate at the current low level. The weekly steel data was relatively calm, and changes in inventory and apparent demand were more affected by holidays. There was a slight divergence between rebar and hot - rolled coils, with hot - rolled coils under more pressure [2] - Later concerns: Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [3]