申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter, with possible reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the initiation of treasury bond trading operations. Market liquidity is expected to return to a reasonable and ample level, strongly supporting treasury bond futures prices. Treasury bond futures prices are likely to remain strong before the end of October, and investors are advised to actively seek long - position opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Futures Market - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2512 contract fell 0.06%, and the trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 4.8bp, DR007 rate dropped 7.3bp, and GC007 rate dropped 0.6bp [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally rose. The 10Y treasury bond yield increased 0.69bp to 1.85%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 38.74bp [2]. Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield dropped 9bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield dropped 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield dropped 0.4bp [2]. Macro News - On October 11, the central bank conducted 1160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 1160 billion yuan. This week, there will be 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits, and 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases maturing [3]. - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban on exports. China firmly opposes the US threat of imposing a 100% tariff and will take corresponding measures if the US persists [3]. - US Vice - President Vance signaled a willingness for rational negotiation between Trump and China [3]. - The approved loan amount for real - estate white - list projects in China has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, and 15 provincial - level regions have seen second - hand housing trading volumes exceed new housing volumes [3]. - South Korea's Deputy Prime Minister of Economy will meet with the US Treasury Secretary to discuss bilateral tariff issues [3]. - Ray Dalio warned that the US government's debt is growing too fast, with the total national debt reaching 37.85 trillion US dollars [3]. Industry Information - On October 11, most money - market interest rates declined. The weighted average rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for 1 - day and 7 - day tenors reached new lows since August 2023 and January 2023 respectively [3]. - On October 12, US treasury bond yields generally declined [3].