Group 1: Short-term Consensus - Trump's new tariff threat of 100% on all Chinese products starting November 1 has significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to declines in equities, industrial commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while gold and U.S. Treasuries rose[3] - The market consensus is that this is a maximum pressure strategy before the APEC summit at the end of October, indicating that the trend has not changed[4] - The overall economic impact is expected to be limited, with China's GDP growth target of 5% and a potential 5.2% growth in the first three quarters suggesting minimal macro policy adjustments before early November[4] Group 2: Long-term Competition - The trade war may signal the beginning of a decoupling between China and the U.S., entering a new cycle of fiscal expansion[4] - The shift from short-term TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading to long-term confrontation is anticipated, with increased policy maneuverability in key sectors under the "high-quality development" strategy[5] - The potential for renewed TACO trading in early November could present opportunities in safe-haven assets, while risk assets may offer buying opportunities after adjustments[31]
贸易战2.0系列六：短期的共识，长期的开始
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-13 03:08