对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱，PTA：中期仍偏弱， MEG：1-5 月差反套

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Mid-term outlook is weak; unilateral trend is weak, but recommend going long on PXN [1][4] - PTA: Mid-term outlook is weak; recommend going long on PTA and short on PX, and holding 1-5 reverse spreads [1][5] - MEG: Recommend 1-5 spread reversal; trend is weak [1][4] Core Views - The US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1, 2025, in response to China's planned export controls on rare earths and other products [3] - The profit of the polyester industry chain is expected to expand due to the sharp decline in oil prices last Friday [4] - The supply and demand of PX is slightly tight, with the domestic PX plant operating rate at 87.4% (+0.8%) this week and expected to decline next week [4] - The PTA operating rate is 74.4% (-2.4%) this week, with some plants reducing production or shutting down [4][5] - The MEG plant operating rate reached a new high this week and is expected to decline slightly next week [6] - The polyester load recovered to 91.5% (+1%) at the end of September, and is expected to maintain at 91% in October, 89% in November, and further decline from December to February [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1, 2025, and implement export controls on all key software, in response to China's planned export controls on almost all products from the same date [3] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG trend intensities are all -1, indicating a weak outlook [3][4] PX - Unilateral trend is weak, recommend going long on PXN. The sharp rise in US octane has driven up the valuation of South Korean MX, compressing the PX-MX spread. The decline in oil prices is expected to expand the profit of the polyester industry chain [4] - The domestic PX plant operating rate is 87.4% (+0.8%) this week, and is expected to decline next week due to the maintenance of Wushi Petrochemical's 1000000-ton plant. The Asian overall load operating rate is 79.9% (+1.9%) [4] - The new PTA plant of Xin凤鸣 has postponed its commissioning due to low processing fees, while the new PTA plant of GAIL in India is gradually planning to be commissioned. The supply and demand of PX is slightly tight [4] PTA - Recommend going long on PTA and short on PX, and holding 1-5 reverse spreads. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak due to the tense Sino-US trade relations [5] - The PTA operating rate is 74.4% (-2.4%) this week, with Yisheng New Materials reducing production and Hengli's 2200000-ton plant shutting down. The market is in a destocking pattern in October, but the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient [5] MEG - Recommend 1-5 spread reversal. The profit of coal-based MEG plants is 218 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from before the holiday, while the naphtha-based MEG plants continue to operate at a loss. The profit of naphtha-based MEG is expected to gradually recover due to the decline in oil prices [6] - The MEG plant operating rate reached a new high this week and is expected to decline slightly next week due to some plant maintenance. The overall load is expected to reach its peak in October [6] Polyester - The polyester load recovered to 91.5% (+1%) at the end of September. The inventory of bottle chip factories decreased, and there is a possibility of increasing production, but it depends on whether the factories adhere to production cuts to maintain prices. The short fiber inventory and processing fees are good, and the load will remain at a high level of 95%. The post-holiday sales of filaments are sluggish, and the inventory has risen to about 30 days [7] - The polyester load is expected to maintain at 91% in October, 89% in November, and further decline from December to February [7]