甲醇日评：高库存压制现货价格-20251013

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply - side pressure of methanol still exists. Coastal methanol prices rebounded slightly after the holiday due to sanctions, but the increase was limited. The port inventory remained high due to high imports and shipping disruptions during the holiday. The short - term replenishment power of methanol downstream before the holiday was insufficient, and the traditional downstream peak season was about to pass. The methanol price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the supply - side drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Difference of Futures and Spot - Methanol futures prices: In Taicang, it was 2240 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, up 25 yuan/ton (1.13%) from the previous day; MA01 was 2307 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.74%); MA05 was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); MA09 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.09%); in Shandong, it was 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.86%); in Guangdong, it was 2240 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.67%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day. The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 67 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiashike Q5500 was 510 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.49%); Datong Q5500 was 587.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.86%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 585 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day [1]. 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit was 324.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 502.00 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (- 18.96%); Northwest MTO profit was - 95.40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 5.53%); East China MTO profit was - 652.07 yuan/ton, down 111.50 yuan/ton (- 20.63%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits: Acetic acid profit was 588.30 yuan/ton, down 2.62 yuan/ton (- 0.44%); MTBE profit was 486.60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (4.29%); formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell. It opened at 2321 yuan/ton, closed at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 545,698 lots and an open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, 7 of which often traveled to and from the Middle East. As of now, 11 ships have been sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity of a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].