中辉能化观点-20251013

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish MTO [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The supply of most energy and chemical products is expected to be in a relatively loose state, and under the influence of macro - factors such as US tariff policies and the supply - demand relationship, most product prices are under downward pressure. Some products may have short - term rebounds or limited decline space due to factors such as low valuations and seasonal demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: On October 10, international oil prices fell significantly. WTI dropped 4.24%, Brent dropped 3.82%, and SC dropped 0.53% [7] - Basic Logic: Trump's action released macro - risks, and the oil price rebounded after a decline. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price is likely to be suppressed below $60 [8] - Fundamentals: OPEC + plans to increase production in November. US oil rigs decreased, and Russian exports from the Baltic Sea accounted for 41% of its seaborne exports. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventories increased, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [9] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is gradually surplus, and pay attention to the shale oil break - even point around $60. In the short - term, the trend is still weak. Hold short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the range of [435 - 455] for SC [10] LPG - Market Review: On October 10, the PG main contract closed at 4063 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12] - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price center moved down, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price, putting pressure on the upper side of LPG [13] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is greater than demand, and LPG mainly follows the oil price. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4000 - 4100] for PG [14] L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7037 yuan/ton (- 40) [18] - Basic Logic: In the short - term, it fluctuates weakly following the cost. The supply is in a loose pattern, and although the absolute price is undervalued, the upward driving force is insufficient [19] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [6850 - 7050] [19] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 closed at 6722 yuan/ton (- 23) [23] - Basic Logic: In the short - term, it runs weakly following the cost. After the holiday, the inventory accumulated, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with high destocking pressure [24] - Strategy Recommendation: The industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the support level below, with the range of [6600 - 6800] [24] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 closed at 4735 yuan/ton (- 34) [27] - Basic Logic: The cost support weakens, and after the holiday, the upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulated. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline space of the spot is limited due to high pre - sales [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [4600 - 4800] [28] PX - Market Review: On October 10, the PX spot was 6618 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6504 (- 82) yuan/ton [31] - Basic Logic: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing the load, and the demand - side PTA start - up is slightly rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance but is expected to be loose. Affected by the US tariff policy, the overnight crude oil dropped significantly [32] - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, sell call options, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for PX511 is [6380 - 6510] [33] PTA - Market Review: On October 10, the PTA in East China was 4485 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4534 (- 50) yuan/ton [35] - Basic Logic: The supply - side start - up load increases, and the demand - side has the expectation of the "Silver October" consumption season. The supply - demand in September is in a tight balance and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, it follows the cost fluctuation [36] - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for TA01 is [4450 - 4535] [37] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Market Review: On October 10, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4190 (- 24) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4185 (- 50) yuan/ton [39] - Basic Logic: Domestic devices are increasing the load, overseas devices change little. The terminal demand is slightly improved, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. Affected by the US tariff policy, the international crude oil price dropped [40] - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to make up for the decline and reach the bottom at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for EG01 is [4050 - 4135] [41] Methanol - Market Review: On October 10, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2245 (+ 20) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2307 (+ 17) yuan/ton [44] - Basic Logic: Affected by the US tariff policy, the supply pressure is large, the demand is slightly improved, the social inventory accumulates again, and the cost support stabilizes [45] - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Gradually close short positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices. The range for MA01 is [2260 - 2340] [47] Urea - Market Review: On October 10, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1540 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1597 (- 12) yuan/ton [49] - Basic Logic: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, the inventory accumulates, and the cost has some support [50] - Strategy Recommendation: The urea price fluctuates weakly. Hold short positions, but pay attention to the opportunity of lightly going long at low prices in the long - term. The range for UR601 is [1550 - 1590] [52] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously bearish. The macro - risk rises, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price drops, but the demand for winter gas storage provides some support [6] Asphalt - Core View: Bearish. The cost - end oil price weakens, the supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [6] Glass - Core View: Bearish continuation. Some production lines are ignited, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment in the peak season needs attention [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Close the short position of the alkali - glass spread, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish continuation. After the holiday, the inventory in the factory increases, the supply is expected to be loose, and the industry hedges at high prices [6] - Strategy Recommendation: The industry hedges at high prices, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6]