沪铜日评：中美贸易冲突能否缓和扰动铜价上涨节奏-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut and the expectation of fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, may slow down the upward pace of Shanghai copper prices due to concerns about whether the Sino - US trade conflict can be alleviated [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Shanghai Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper contract was 85,910, down 840 from the previous day; trading volume was 212,468 lots, an increase of 74,652; open interest was 216,115 lots, a decrease of 5,600; inventory was 29,964 tons, an increase of 261; the Shanghai copper basis was 770, an increase of 1,780 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,680, up 940 from the previous day [1] London Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,374, down 402.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 31.19, down 6.29; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 74.2, down 19.97 [1] COMEX Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper contract was 4.845, down 0.24 from the previous day; total inventory was 339,525, an increase of 4,004 [1] Group 4: Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis Supply - There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, causing the China copper concentrate import index to remain negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates; the expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to an initial increase in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1] Demand - High copper prices have led downstream buyers to mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [1] Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [1] Group 5: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [1]