商品期货早班车-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors such as the US - China trade war and US tariff policies, and different commodities show different price trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [1][2][3]. - The precious metals market is affected by factors like the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks. The basic metals market is affected by supply - demand balance, trade frictions, and other factors. The black industry is influenced by steel and iron ore supply - demand, and macro - political factors. The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as yield, tariff policies, and weather. The energy - chemical market is affected by new device production, demand seasons, and trade frictions [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 1.06% to $4018 per ounce. The US 9 - month CPI release was postponed, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate policy. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously due to the possibility of high - level shocks [1]. - Silver: It followed gold to reach a new high. The market sentiment increased, and it is recommended to hold with a light position [1]. Basic Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuated, affected by Trump's tariff remarks. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum faced downward pressure due to macro - sentiment and weakening demand. It is recommended to partially close long positions or buy put options [1]. - Alumina: The short - term trend is dominated by oversupply, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - Industrial Silicon: The short - term trend is affected by coking coal and tariffs, and it is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is expected to maintain a tight balance in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US leadership negotiations and the shutdown of lithium mines in Jiangxi. It is recommended to short at high prices and build small - scale positions [2]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the progress of the state - purchase platform and the 11 - 12 spread [2]. - Tin: It is expected to oscillate within a range [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but there is obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions [4]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand is moderately strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Coking Coal: The futures valuation is high, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The US soybeans are weak, but considering the low valuation and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic market may rebound, but the medium - term trend depends on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - Corn: The new - crop listing pressure is high, and the futures price is expected to decline oscillatingly [6]. - Edible Oils: The unilateral trading of oils is difficult, and the P structure is suitable for reverse spreads. It is necessary to pay attention to the yield in production areas and bio - diesel policies [6]. - White Sugar: It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see, with a strategy in the range of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [6]. - Log: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Eggs: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - Hogs: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to decline [7]. Energy - Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [8]. - PVC: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [8]. - PTA: The PX price is expected to decline oscillatingly, and it is recommended to short the processing fee of PTA in the long term [8][9]. - Rubber: It is expected to decline significantly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [9]. - Glass: The spot is okay, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - PP: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [9]. - MEG: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9][10]. - Crude Oil: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [10]. - Styrene: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Caustic Soda: It is recommended to wait and see [10][11].