贵金属周报：美国政府关门日近，贵金属持续攀升-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - From September 22 to September 30, both foreign and domestic precious metals rose across the board, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired. Political uncertainty is the core variable driving up the safe - haven demand. The US government shutdown and inflation data leading to rate - cut expectations support precious metal prices, while the divergent Fed amplifies price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Variety Views - In the period from September 22 to September 30, COMEX gold futures rose 4.91% to $3887.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 9.05% to $46.84 per ounce. Domestically, Shanghai gold rose 5.38% to 874.40 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 9.86% to 10918.00 yuan per kilogram. The US 8 - month PCE price index was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE was 2.9% year - on - year. Policy guidance sensitive period is coming for the Fed. Political risk may push up the risk - hedging premium of gold [4]. 3.2. Market News - US Government Shutdown Issue: On September 20, Senate Democrats blocked a Republican temporary appropriation bill. On September 21, both parties' short - term spending bills failed in the Senate. With existing funds only supporting the federal government until the end of the month, the government is approaching a shutdown, and the political deadlock between the two parties remains unresolved as of September 27 [6]. - Fed's Interest Rate Stance: Multiple Fed officials have different views. Some believe the current interest rate is between "slightly restrictive and neutral" with limited room for further rate cuts; some support rate cuts; and there are discussions about replacing the current 2% inflation target with a target range. There are also differences in the number and magnitude of rate cuts within the Fed [8]. - Economic Data: The US 9 - month S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, service PMI was 53.9, and composite PMI was 53.6, all below expectations. The second - quarter GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was revised up to 3.8%. The 8 - month core PCE price index was 2.9% year - on - year, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%. The initial jobless claims last week dropped to 218,000 [10]. - Other News: China's 1 - 8 month industrial enterprise profits increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the 8 - month profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted up to 3.2% by the OECD [13].