Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2025-10-13 03:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 9.40, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the current price of HKD 7.80 [4][10]. Core Insights - The clinical data for the PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 shows promising results, with significant improvements in lung function and symptoms for patients with severe COPD after 4 weeks of treatment [1][2]. - TQC3721 is positioned as the second globally in development and the only PDE3/4 inhibitor currently in Phase III clinical trials, suggesting substantial market potential and opportunities for licensing [10][12]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue growth of 19.1% for FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 81.3% in the same year [3][13]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 26,199 in FY23A to 34,380 in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3][17]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 2,589 in FY24A to 6,267 in FY25E, marking an increase of 81.3% [3][13]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to reach RMB 0.33 in FY25E, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 21.6 [3][10]. Clinical Data Highlights - In the Phase II clinical trial, TQC3721 demonstrated a peak FEV1 improvement of 147ml compared to the placebo group, aligning with the results of the approved competitor, ensifentrine [2][10]. - The safety profile of TQC3721 is favorable, with no significant adverse effects reported in gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, or renal functions during the trials [1][10]. Market Context - The global COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected individuals, and TQC3721's development is timely given the increasing demand for effective treatments [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is highlighted by the recent FDA approval of ensifentrine, which underscores the potential for TQC3721 to capture market share as it progresses through clinical trials [10][12].