粕类周报：市场题材指引有限，国内粕类盘面偏弱震荡-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The m2601 soybean meal contract is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later period. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract is also in an oscillating downward stage, with the price center expected to drop [3]. - For soybean meal, externally, the US soybean harvest season has begun, presenting phased harvesting pressure, and there is no substantial progress in the China-US tariff agreement. Domestically, the recent import of soybeans for crushing remains sufficient, the inventory pressure of soybean meal needs to be digested, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. In the short term, affected by the US soybean harvest pressure and the suspension of Argentina's export tariffs, the soybean meal is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic soybean meal inventory pressure [3]. - For rapeseed meal, globally, the supply and demand pattern of rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be looser, suppressing the rapeseed price. In China, due to policies and high - margin requirements for imports and tariff restrictions, the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to tighten. However, the downstream demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitution consumption of rapeseed meal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the short term, it will follow the decline of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of rapeseed meal and the changes in China - Canada trade relations [3]. Summary According to the Directory International Supply and Demand US Soybean Supply and Demand - The US soybean harvest is advancing, and the USDA report release is postponed due to the government shutdown. The CBOT soybean price has a slight rebound but is expected to be weak overall. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [14][15]. - From September 1, 2025, the old - crop soybean inventory in the US was 316 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. As of October 7, about 39% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought [16]. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing is advancing, with the main - producing state of Mato Grosso having a relatively fast sowing progress. China's procurement supports the firmness of Brazilian soybean premiums. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated to be 48.6 million hectares, with an expected output of 176.7 million tons. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean output is expected to be 43.6 million tons [36][37]. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed output is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons year - on - year, with the EU and Canada having increased production. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%, and the international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline. Canada's rapeseed harvest is nearly half - completed, and the overall output is expected to remain at a relatively high level. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed suppress its export demand and the international rapeseed price [65]. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long - position quantity, non - commercial short - position quantity, and total position quantity are provided, as well as the relevant data for CBOT soybean meal [54][57]. Domestic Supply and Demand Domestic Import Situation - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 609,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons [79]. - The supply of rapeseed meal includes the import and crushing of rapeseed and the direct import of rapeseed meal. The import of rapeseed in October is estimated to be 0 tons, 600,000 tons in November, and 850,000 tons in December [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Startup Rate - As of the week of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7557 million tons, with a startup rate of 49.01%. It is expected that in the 41st week (October 4 - 10), the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will be 1.357 million tons, with a startup rate of 37.88%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal major oil mills is 20,000 tons, with a startup rate of 5.33% this week, and is expected to be 18,000 tons next week, with a startup rate of 4.80% [101]. Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods is presented, along with the soybean crushing profit on the futures market, import freight, FOB price, and premium [108][109]. - The import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market and in the spot market are also provided [116]. Inventory - As of the week of September 28, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.1991 million tons, an increase of 3.63% from the previous week and 14.3% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 4.86% from the previous week and 3.04% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal major oil mills was 26,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous week [118]. Transaction - During the holiday, the soybean meal transaction was light. On the first trading day after the holiday, the total soybean meal transaction of major domestic oil mills was 223,800 tons, an increase of 185,700 tons from the previous trading day. The downstream feed enterprises made appropriate purchases, and the market trading enthusiasm was fair [133]. Downstream Demand - The monthly feed output in August 2025 is provided, along with the prices of pig and egg - poultry feeds, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs,外购仔猪, white - feather broilers, and laying hens [138][140].