宏观周报（10月第2周）：中美贸易局势紧张加大避险情绪-20251013

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The tension in China-US trade relations has heightened risk aversion in the market[1] - During the period from September 29 to October 10, the average daily trading volume increased by 82.1 billion RMB, reaching 2.3953 trillion RMB[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11%[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The September PMI showed a weaker-than-seasonal recovery, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[9] - Real estate sales experienced a significant year-on-year decline, reflecting continued pressure in the sector[9] - Exports in September maintained resilience due to a low base, supporting investment recovery prospects[9] Group 3: Fixed Income Market - During the same period, the yield on 30-year government bonds increased, while other maturities saw slight declines[9] - The central bank's operations indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity, with a potential increase in the probability of interest rate cuts in October[9] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is cautiously optimistic, despite uncertainties from the stock market and fund redemption regulations[9] Group 4: International Market Dynamics - US stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.66% and the S&P 500 down by 1.37%[9] - The US government shutdown has intensified economic pressures, with an estimated daily loss of approximately 400 million USD in wages[9] - Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 has further escalated market risk aversion[9]