申银万国期货首席点评：贸易担忧情绪缓解

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Bullish" or "Bearish" view for various commodities, with "Bullish" for corn, cotton, apple, zinc, silver, gold, iron ore, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and "Bearish" for crude oil, treasury bonds (T), treasury bonds (TL), and stock index (IM) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade concerns have eased, with US stock futures opening higher, S&P 500 futures up 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.4%. Brent crude futures rose more than 1% at the start, and cryptocurrencies rebounded on Sunday, with Ethereum up more than 10% overnight. Copper in New York rose more than 2% at the start of Asian trading on Monday [1] - After a high-level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again and maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, affected by Sino - US trade, market volatility may increase. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storage asset is rising [3][22] - The resurgence of the Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward. However, there is still a possibility of trade friction mitigation, and low oil prices may cause OPEC to slow down production increases [4][5][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns 3.1.1 International News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24 at 8:30 am Eastern Time (20:30 Beijing time) [7] 3.1.2 Domestic News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export controls on relevant rare - earth items, which is a proper measure to improve the export control system [8] 3.1.3 Industry News - In September, China's Small and Medium - Sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) was 89.0, down 0.1 point from August but higher than the same period last year. Some sub - indexes showed a stable and positive development trend [9][10] 3.2 Outer - Market Daily Earnings - From October 9 to 10, major outer - market indexes such as the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures declined. The US dollar index also fell, while gold and silver prices rose. ICE Brent crude oil fell 4.81% [11] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - Stock Index: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, trade issues may increase market volatility. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - Treasury Bonds: Affected by US trade remarks, treasury bond yields have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are expected to remain strong until the end of October. The central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies in the fourth quarter [15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. Trade friction affects oil prices through supply - chain disruption and risk - asset selling. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward [4][5][16] - Methanol: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants has increased, and coastal methanol inventories are rising. Methanol is short - term bearish [17] - Rubber: The natural rubber futures rebounded slightly last week. Supply pressure may increase later, and the demand support is limited. The post - holiday trend of Shanghai rubber is expected to be oscillating and bullish [18] - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Prices are affected by cost fluctuations and market sentiment is cautious [19][20] - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed down. The market is waiting for autumn consumption to digest inventory and for policy changes [21] 3.3.3 Metals - Precious Metals: Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks' gold - buying and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven asset support its price [3][22] - Copper: The copper price rebounded in the morning. The supply of concentrates has been tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting the copper price in the long term [23] - Zinc: The zinc price fell due to the decline in the copper price. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign price [24] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply has increased, demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. The lithium salt price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption [25][26] 3.3.4 Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke futures were weak on Friday night. The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. The short - term price may fluctuate sharply [27] - Iron Ore: Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, iron ore demand is supported, and global iron ore shipments have decreased. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28] - Steel: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be bullish in the medium term, with hot - rolled coil stronger than rebar [29] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The bean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly at night. The USDA report is expected to lower the US soybean yield, but the report is postponed. The domestic market is well - supplied, and the market is expected to oscillate [30] - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, which may put short - term pressure on prices. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [31][32] - Sugar: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, and the domestic market is affected by new - season sugar production and import pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [33] - Cotton: The US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton market is affected by new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [34] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index oscillated downward. The off - season trading may have ended, and the near - term market will enter a game for the year - end peak season. The short - term peak - season expectation may weaken due to the trade war, and the far - term market is affected by the Red Sea resumption progress [35]