Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The latest round of Sino-US trade frictions since October 2025 is expected to have a significantly weaker impact on the market than the "reciprocal tariff" shock in April 2025, and the resulting fluctuations are relatively limited. In the short term, there should not be overly high expectations for Sino-US trade talks, and the uncertainty of subsequent tariff processes remains relatively high [1]. - Due to Trump's increase in tariffs on China, market risk aversion has significantly increased. The short - term shock is expected to cause a significant decline in A - share, but subsequent domestic policy uncertainties and the possibility of Sino - US leader meetings are expected to support the stock market [3]. - Gold and silver are still strong despite increased volatility. The long - term impact of trade tariff conflicts on precious metals is positive, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the relationship between the risk of following the decline under the liquidity trap and the positive impact of the safe - haven attribute [10]. - For copper, the expected supply shortage and the expected negative impact of tariff policies will compete. In the short term, the policy will disrupt the upward rhythm, and the futures price may enter a high - level shock [15]. - For aluminum, the current core factor affecting the price is the macro - situation. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For investors, it is recommended to operate cautiously, with light positions and small stop - losses. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - The overall supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate futures is expected to show a weakening shock trend in the range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [22]. - For industrial silicon, the price center will rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the price increase is limited due to inventory pressure. For polysilicon, the market risk is relatively high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [25]. - For steel products, the current overseas macro - environment is under pressure, and the subsequent development of Sino - US trade negotiations will be the core factor affecting asset prices. Currently, the overall situation is bearish [28]. - For iron ore, the short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [29]. - For coking coal and coke, the second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products [30]. - For ferroalloys, the contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. - For crude oil, Trump's tariff threat has triggered market concerns about the economy and oil demand, and factors such as oversupply and weak demand have further intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, causing the oil price center to shift downward and increasing volatility [33]. - For LPG, the risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, but the decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market [36]. - For PTA - PX, the market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - For methanol, in the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150 [41]. - For PP and PE, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44][46]. - For PVC, the supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - For fuel oil, the supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - For asphalt, due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51]. Summaries by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. After the National Day holiday, the Sino - US trade friction has become the new focus of the market. The current supply - demand policies are advancing in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: Since October 2025, Sino - US trade frictions have shown a new round of escalation. This friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the market than in April 2025. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index may exist, but the RMB is expected to remain generally stable [1]. - Stock Index: Trump's increase in tariffs has hit market risk appetite. The short - term shock is expected to cause a decline in A - share, but subsequent factors are expected to support the stock market. It is recommended to reduce long positions and manage risks [3]. - Treasury Bonds: Due to Trump's threat to increase tariffs, the market has entered a risk - aversion mode. It is expected that treasury bond futures will open significantly higher today, but whether they can continue to rise depends on the stock market and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider taking profits on previous long positions [4]. - Container Shipping: The increase in US tariffs is negative for the market sentiment. In the short term, the futures price is likely to decline, and a relatively bearish strategy or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: They are still strong despite increased volatility. Long - term investment funds' positions and inventory have changed. This week, attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously and consider short - term trading opportunities [10][11]. - Copper: After Trump threatened to increase tariffs, copper prices fell. The supply shortage expectation and the tariff policy expectation will compete. In the short term, the price may be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels and consider option strategies [12][15]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, the macro - policy is the core factor affecting the price. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - Zinc: The price is suppressed by both the macro - situation and fundamentals. In the short term, a bearish logic is adopted, and an internal - external reverse spread strategy can be considered after the export window opens [18]. - Nickel, Stainless Steel: They may be affected by tariffs. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is restricted, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of tariffs [19]. - Tin: It is expected to experience a short - term correction. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to grow. The futures price is expected to show a weakening shock trend in a certain range [22]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, and the polysilicon market is mainly focused on the establishment of the storage platform in October and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. High risks are involved, and cautious participation is recommended [25]. - Lead: The macro - uncertainty has increased, and both supply and demand have increased. The price is expected to remain volatile with a certain downward possibility [26]. Black Metals - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil: The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, and the steel market is bearish. The subsequent development of Sino - US trade and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session need to be focused on. It is recommended to buy options to layout for increased volatility [27][28]. - Iron Ore: The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, the downstream iron - water demand has support, but the steel demand is weak, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [28][29]. - Coking Coal, Coke: The second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. A unilateral shock approach and a coking coal 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy can be considered [30]. - Silicon Iron, Silicon Manganese: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump's tariff threat has caused the oil price to fall to a five - month low. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The oil price center is expected to shift downward, and volatility will increase [32][33]. - LPG: The decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market. The risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, and the domestic chemical demand is stable [36]. - PTA - PX: The market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment. The price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - Methanol: In the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150. It is recommended to buy a small bottom position at low prices [41]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44]. - PE: The supply - demand pattern is continuously loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [46]. - PVC: The supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - Pure Benzene, Styrene: The short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - Fuel Oil: The supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - Asphalt: Due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51].
金融期货早评-20251013
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-13 03:35