综合晨报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods has significantly impacted the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [2][3]. - The risk of a resurgence in the China - US tariff war and the potential increase in the supply - demand surplus in the oil market will keep the oil market in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and they may continue to rise as the US signals a willingness to negotiate [3]. - Most commodity markets are under pressure due to trade frictions, but some may have certain support levels or short - term rebounds based on their fundamentals [4][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: International oil prices dropped significantly on Friday due to Trump's tariff threat, and although they rebounded slightly on Monday, the Brent price was still 2.4% lower than on Friday afternoon. The oil market will continue to be weak and volatile, mainly due to the risk of the China - US tariff war and potential supply - demand imbalances [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Trump's tariff threat and the progress in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation have led to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, putting downward pressure on the fuel oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken further [22]. - Asphalt: The asphalt market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. Cost side weakness puts pressure on asphalt, but the cracking spread has rebounded since late September [23]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): OPEC+ future production increase and the decline in Saudi CP prices have led to a cautious market sentiment. LPG is under pressure in the short term [24]. Metals - Precious Metals: The long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and they may continue their upward trend as the market liquidity risk decreases [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Copper prices fell on Friday due to trade tensions. Although large - scale mine supply losses have affected copper concentrate production growth expectations, the impact of new trade risks on macro - sentiment should still be evaluated [4]. - Aluminum: Trump's tariff threat caused a significant drop in non - ferrous metals. The aluminum market has a neutral inventory accumulation, and the Shanghai Aluminum price has support around 20,500 yuan [5]. - Zinc: The market is bearish due to the tariff threat. The London Zinc price is under pressure at the 3050 - dollar/ton level, and the Shanghai Zinc market has a supply - surplus situation [8]. - Lead: The LME lead inventory is high, but the Shanghai Lead price has cost support. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - Nickel: The Shanghai Nickel price rebounded and then fell back. The market is in a short - term oscillation, and it is not considered a bullish variety [10]. - Tin: The London Tin price may fall back to the pre - holiday trading range in the short term [11]. - Carbonate Lithium: The implementation of export controls on lithium - related products may affect market risk preferences. With high inventory levels, there is a short - term callback risk [12]. - Polysilicon: The spot price is stable compared to before the holiday. The industry is facing high - level inventory accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 48,000 - yuan/ton support [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - Urea: The urea market is weak. Production enterprises have large inventories, and the supply is high. The domestic supply - demand pattern remains loose [25]. - Methanol: The methanol market may continue to be weak due to the drop in oil prices and a weak macro - atmosphere. However, the rumored sanctions on Iranian vessels may affect imports [26]. - Pure Benzene: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term risk of decline, and the extent of the decline depends on oil prices [27]. - Styrene: The international financial market turmoil has increased the bearish sentiment in the styrene market. The price is under pressure due to cost and supply - demand factors [28]. - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The market is bearish, with increased inventory after the holiday and a downward - trending price center [29]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: The PVC market may be weak due to high supply and low demand. The caustic soda market has a high - pressure supply situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - PX & PTA: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term downward risk. The supply - demand situation is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [31]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased domestic production and high port inventory. The supply - demand situation will weaken in the fourth quarter [32]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The short - fiber price may decline due to oil price drops and trade frictions. The bottle - chip demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The US tariff threat has affected the US soybean market. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be supply shortages in the first quarter of next year if the trade relationship deteriorates [37]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The decline in oil prices has led to a drop in vegetable oil prices. The palm oil market in Malaysia has high inventory, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient [38]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed market is affected by trade expectations. The rapeseed price is under short - term pressure, and the domestic rapeseed futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - Soybean No.1: The domestic soybean may be affected by the overseas market in the short - term. Enterprises are starting to purchase new - season soybeans [40]. - Corn: The Dalian corn futures are more domestically - oriented. The new - grain listing has led to a decline in corn prices, but the state - owned grain reserve purchase may provide some support [41]. - Livestock and Poultry Products - Pig: The pig futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, but the market may improve in the second half of next year [42]. - Egg: The egg price is under downward pressure due to high production capacity and off - season demand. The near - term contracts should be treated with a bearish view, while the contracts for the first half of next year can be considered for long - position allocation [43]. - Cotton: The US cotton demand is expected to be weak. The China - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in both domestic and international cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Sugar: The international sugar market has sufficient supply. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good in the 25/26 season, and attention should be paid to weather conditions [45]. - Apple: The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new - season apple production is expected to be stable, and the high inventory may put pressure on prices [46]. - Timber: The timber market's supply - demand situation has improved. The low - price spot provides an opportunity for long - position allocation [47]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Financial Products - Stock Index Futures: The stock market is under pressure due to trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Short - term strategies can be adjusted according to market conditions, such as using far - month contracts for long - position allocation or near - month contracts for hedging [49]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The 10 - month liquidity gap is controllable, and the bond market is expected to gradually recover. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].