本周热点前瞻2025-10-13

Report Summary Core Views - The ongoing partial shutdown of the US federal government has postponed the release of multiple data, and the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP in the US might also be affected [2]. - The US's tariff increase and export control measures against China will likely impact the domestic futures market this week, with negative effects on stock index futures and most commodity futures, and positive effects on Treasury bond futures, gold, and silver futures [2]. - The release of various economic data and reports this week, including China's import and export data, financial statistics, and the US's retail sales and housing data, is expected to influence the futures market [2][4][9] Weekly Key Events and Forecasts October 13 - China's September import and export data: Expected export growth of 7.1% and import growth of 1.5% in USD terms, which may boost stock index and commodity futures prices [4]. - OPEC's monthly crude oil market report: The report's outcome may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [5]. - World Bank and IMF's 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting: Central bank governors may discuss potential market crashes and their impact on the global economy [6]. October 14 - Prices of important production materials in circulation in early October: The data of 9 categories and 50 products may influence the futures market [8]. - IEA's monthly crude oil market report: May affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [10]. October 15 - China's September financial statistics: Expected M2 growth of 8.5%, new RMB loans of 1375 billion yuan, and social financing scale increment of 3450 billion yuan, which may impact the futures market [9][12]. - National energy consumption data: The results may affect relevant futures prices [11]. - WBMS global metal supply - demand report: May impact relevant metal futures prices [13]. October 16 - NOPA soybean crushing report: May affect soybean and related agricultural product futures prices [14]. - Fed's Beige Book: May influence relevant futures prices [15]. - US September retail sales: Expected monthly rates of 0.4% and 0.3% for retail sales and core retail sales respectively, which may slightly inhibit the rise of most commodity futures prices except for gold and silver [16]. October 17 - US EIA crude oil inventory change: Continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [17]. - US September new housing starts and building permits: Slightly higher than previous values may help basic metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18]. - US September industrial output: Expected monthly growth rate of 0.1% [19].