生猪周报：出栏增加，猪价承压下跌-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to adjust weakly and fluctuate. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and it is difficult for pig prices to continue to rise significantly. If the negative cycle of "price decline → increased enthusiasm for slaughter → price decline" occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One may consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time (for reference only, not investment advice) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: Affected by the decline in spot prices, futures prices have dropped this week [2]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: The prices of far - month contracts have adjusted weakly [5]. - Inter - monthly Spread Changes: With weak spot prices, the inter - monthly spread shows a reverse spread trend, especially the 11 - 01 contract [8][11]. Spot End - Pig Prices and Slaughter Volume: This week, the slaughter volume has increased steadily, while pig prices have declined [14]. - Regional Price Differences: Regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - Fat - to - Standard Price Difference: The fat - to - standard price difference has adjusted strongly and fluctuated. If it continues to strengthen, it may enhance the willingness of small - scale farmers to increase the weight of pigs [18]. - Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference: As pig prices decline, terminal consumption is expected to increase [20]. - Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - to - Frozen Price Difference: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - to - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - Farming Profits: All pig farming has fallen into losses [24]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight has decreased slightly this week, and the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased [26]. Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: At the end of August, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Different data sources show different trends in the inventory of reproductive sows [28]. - Sow Culling Situation: This week, the price of culled sows has been running weakly. In September, the slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month, and the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction has increased [30]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall increase in the volume of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets has been running weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows has been running steadily but weakly [34]. Slaughter End - Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profits: The slaughter volume has continued to increase month - on - month. In August, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 33.5 million, with a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 29.6%. Regarding frozen products, attention should be paid to whether there will be inventory actions after the decline in pig prices [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].