SH周报：供需基本面变化有限现货弱稳等待驱动-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited changes, and the spot market is weakly stable, waiting for a driving force. There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. The spot price is currently relatively strong, but as it enters the off - season later, the spot price may decline again [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in China has strengthened slightly. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda before the holiday was 813 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.625 yuan/dry ton), and after the holiday, it was 315 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.675 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali and the spread between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali vary in different regions and show different trends over time [27][31]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32 - alkali, 50 - alkali, and 99 - flake caustic soda between different regions also have different trends over time [34][35]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 85.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 86.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35% [40]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - There are long - term shutdown, this - week maintenance, and future - planned maintenance situations for chlor - alkali plants. For example, Yangmei in North China - Shanxi has been shut down since 2016, and Jiangsu Xinpu in East China - Jiangsu has resumed operation after maintenance from August 25th to September 14th [45]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The operation status of flake caustic soda plants varies among different manufacturers. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai's flake caustic soda plant in Shengxiong Factory has been under semi - load maintenance from September 6th to 26th, and there are also plans for future maintenance [47]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The alumina market has different price trends, spreads, production profits, operating rates, and inventory situations. For example, the average price of alumina in different regions shows different trends over time, and the production profit also fluctuates [54]. 3.4.2 Other Downstream Industries - In the viscose staple fiber industry, the capacity utilization rate this week is 89.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. In the printing and dyeing industry, as of October 9th, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 66.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47% [53]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 3, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 24.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, and the inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories is 2.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.59% [69]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market is stable this week, and the price of domestic thermal coal is rising. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali at the spot end this week is basically the same as last week [75]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - For chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC, the benchmark spot price shows a certain trend over time. The production capacity utilization rate and production profit of other chlorine - consuming products such as epoxy propane and epoxy chloropropane also have different performance [87][93]. 3.8 Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participants in the industrial chain have different operation suggestions. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can consider building inventory by selling put options and buying call options [4][5].