中美贸易摩擦升级，胶价震荡偏空

Group 1: Report Core View - The rubber price shows a volatile and bearish trend. Sino-US trade friction has escalated, which may suppress the rubber price. The supply-side pressure is not fully released in the short term, and the demand-side has limited guidance for the rubber price. Technically, the rubber price will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the stabilization opportunity [3][85][86] Group 2: Market Review - Analyzed the weekly trends of Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, synthetic rubber main contract, futures active contract RU - NR spread, synthetic rubber BR spot - futures basis, and futures RU - BR spread, with data sources including Boyiyun and WIND [11][14][17] Group 3: Rubber Fundamental Analysis Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. In August 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, and the consumption is expected to decrease by 1% to 1.256 million tons. In 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and the consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [33][37][38] - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase from the same period in 2024 [42] - As of the week of October 3, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area was 454,400 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous period [50] Demand - Side - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase from the previous year [53] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase [56] - As of the week of October 9, the operating load of Shandong's all - steel tire enterprises was 43.96%, a 21.76% decrease from the previous week; the operating load of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 46.51%, a 27.07% decrease from the previous week [60] - In August 2025, the heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to August, the heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 14%, and the annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [70] - At the end of August 2025, China's all - steel tire total inventory was 10.19 million pieces, and the semi - steel tire total inventory was 18.53 million pieces, both showing a slight month - on - month decrease [73] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of October 11, the intended transaction price of SCRWF mainstream goods in the Shanghai market was 14,300 - 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 15,050 - 15,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [85] - Sino - US trade friction has escalated, which may suppress the rubber price. The supply - side pressure is not fully released in the short term, and the demand - side has limited guidance for the rubber price. Technically, the rubber price will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the stabilization opportunity [85][86]