煤炭行业周报：港口煤价淡季反弹，Q4旺季行情可期-20251013

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][14]. Core Insights - The coal prices have shown a seasonal rebound, with expectations for a favorable market in Q4 due to increased demand and supply constraints [7]. - The report highlights the impact of "anti-involution" policies and stricter safety regulations on coal supply, which are expected to support price stability and potential increases [7][9]. - The overall sentiment is that coal prices are likely to rise in the upcoming winter season, driven by demand recovery and macroeconomic policies [7][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 11, the Qinhuangdao coal price was 706 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 154 RMB/ton, but a slight week-on-week increase of 0.7% [7]. - The average daily coal consumption in power plants across 25 provinces was 5.12 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that coal supply is expected to remain tight due to "anti-involution" effects and safety inspections, which may limit new supply [7]. - The inventory levels at northern ports were reported at 17.47 million tons, an increase compared to the same period last year [7]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal stocks that are likely to benefit from the current market conditions, including companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal [9]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in companies like Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment Energy, which are expected to see performance improvements [9].