银行业周度追踪2025年第40周：从恒生1.8xPB私有化看境内银行重估-20251013

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Insights - The privatization of Hang Seng Bank by HSBC reflects a significant undervaluation of quality domestic bank stocks [6][40] - The Longjiang Bank Index increased by 0.2% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.7% and the ChiNext Index by 4.1%, indicating a potential valuation recovery in the banking sector [2][21] - HSBC's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 14.6% at the end of June, with the privatization expected to have a one-time impact of approximately 125 basis points on capital metrics [6][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Longjiang Bank Index saw a cumulative increase of 0.2%, with significant individual stock performances from Qilu Bank, Changsha Bank, and Shanghai Bank, which rose by 2.6% [2][21] - HSBC's stock fell by 5.8% due to market concerns over the premium paid for the privatization of Hang Seng Bank [8][21] Valuation Insights - The privatization acquisition is expected to provide critical guidance for the valuation of quality bank stocks, with a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.8x for quality banks [7][43] - The report highlights that the return on equity (ROE) for leading domestic retail banks is generally between 10% and 15%, while Hang Seng Bank's projected return on tangible equity (ROTE) for 2024 is 11.3% [7][43] Convertible Bonds - There are opportunities for valuation recovery in convertible bonds of banks, with specific mention of the increasing distance to strong redemption prices for stocks like CCB and SPDB [9][27] - SPDB's convertible bonds are set to be delisted soon, with a current balance of 24.3 billion yuan and a conversion premium of 16.7% [9][27] Trading Activity - The trading activity of state-owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks has decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a stabilization in trading density [10][32] - The average dividend yield of the six major state-owned banks in A-shares has risen to 4.16%, with a yield spread of 231 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield [23][26]