Report Title - [New Energy Weekly Report] [1] Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Nonferrous Metals Research Center [2] - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling [2] - Assistant Analyst: Chen Yusen [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The polysilicon market has an "anti - involution" policy framework, and the fundamentals may improve in the medium to long term, but prices may fluctuate in the short term. The lithium carbonate market has strong terminal demand, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [8][9][86] Summary by Directory 1. Nonferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - Price Data: The report monitors the closing prices of various nonferrous metals and new energy products, including the US dollar index, exchange rates, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, etc. For example, the current value of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6] 2. Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - Supply: National weekly production is 95,500 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week. The number of open furnaces is 313, an increase of 3 from the previous week. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month and a 7.33% decrease from the same period last year. October production is planned to be 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from the previous month and a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [8] - Demand: Polysilicon weekly production is 32,000 tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Organic silicon DMC weekly production is 47,600 tons, a 1.04% decrease from the previous week [8] - Inventory: The visible inventory is 693,900 tons, a 0.86% decrease from the previous week, with year - on - year growth of 23.18%. The industry inventory is 442,500 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week [8] - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, a 0.07% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 133 yuan, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - Investment View: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the price may fluctuate [8] Polysilicon - Supply: National weekly production is 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. August production was 131,700 tons, a 23.31% increase from the previous month and a 2.41% increase from the same period last year. September production is planned to be 126,700 tons, a 3.80% decrease from the previous month and a 2.69% decrease from the same period last year [9] - Demand: Silicon wafer weekly production is 13.65GW, a 0.27% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.60GW, a 0.45% increase from the previous week [9] - Inventory: The factory inventory is 25,390 tons, a 4.83% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 24,420 tons, a 3.30% increase from the previous week [9] - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 41,543 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,057 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week [9] - Investment View: The "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" policy framework may improve the fundamentals of polysilicon in the medium to long term. Due to the long - term non - implementation of "anti - involution", market sentiment has subsided, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] 3. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - Supply: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. September production was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from the previous month and a 52.00% increase from the same period last year. October production is planned to be about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from the previous month and a 50.78% increase from the same period last year [86] - Import: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month and a 23.54% increase from the same period last year. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month and a 33.13% decrease from the same period last year [86] - Material Demand: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,100 tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 18,800 tons, a 0.48% increase from the previous week [86] - Terminal Demand: In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a 11.91% increase from the previous month and a 27.40% increase from the same period last year; the sales volume was 1.3953 million, a 10.55% increase from the previous month and a 26.84% increase from the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative winning bid power of domestic energy storage was 41.09GW/111.43GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase from the same period last year [86] - Inventory: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 134,800 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous week. The lithium salt factory inventory is 34,700 tons, a 4.85% decrease from the previous week [86] - Cost and Profit: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external purchase is 77,806 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease from the previous week; the production profit is - 7,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 727 yuan/ton from the previous week [86] - Investment View: In the short term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, pushing up prices. In the medium to long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [86]
新能源周报：工业硅供需双增、多晶硅情绪退潮、碳酸锂需求旺短期或错配-20251013
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-13 05:23