液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：CP价格大幅下调，中美贸易摩擦风云再起-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - CP prices have significantly decreased, and the China-US trade friction has flared up again. The LPG market is currently affected by multiple factors, with short - term prices expected to move downward. The overall investment view is oscillating bearish, and it is recommended to temporarily hold off on unilateral trading and consider arbitrage strategies such as going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, as well as going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601 [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last Friday, the national LPG valuation was 4,428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. During the National Day holiday, due to factors such as poor logistics, an unexpected decline in Saudi CP in October, and sufficient import arrivals, the LPG price dropped. After the holiday, the downward trend continued, with a general trading atmosphere and no large - scale replenishment [6] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about [X] tons, including [X] tons of civil gas, [X] tons of industrial gas, and [X] tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was [X] tons. In addition, in the South China region, some manufacturers increased the supply due to the transformation of raw materials from self - use to external sales, and in the North China region, some manufacturers resumed production, leading to an increase in civil gas supply [4] 3.3 Demand - The LPG combustion demand is in the off - season as the National Day combustion period has ended and the winter heating season has not yet arrived. In the C4 deep - processing sector, the demand for ether - after C4 has increased due to the start - up of some devices. However, the demand for refined oil during the holiday was average, and the gasoline and diesel markets are expected to weaken due to new energy substitution. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the demand for propane and butane is stable, and the profit of PDH enterprises has improved in the short - term, delaying maintenance plans, but the terminal demand is expected to return to weakness after the terminal price adjustment [4] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was [X] tons, and the port inventory was [X] tons. The domestic LPG market storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. Affected by the CP decline, the market trading atmosphere weakened, and due to factors such as reduced transportation capacity during the holiday, manufacturers faced difficulties in shipping, leading to an increase in storage capacity data. At ports, the inventory gradually accumulated due to high arrival volumes, fluctuating chemical demand, and shipping restrictions [4] 3.5 Basis, Position - The weekly average basis in East China was [X] yuan/ton, in South China was [X] yuan/ton, and in Shandong was [X] yuan/ton. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by [X] lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were [X]%, [X]%, and [X]% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were [X] yuan/ton, [X] yuan/ton, and [X] yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was [X], and the PG continuous first - continuous second monthly spread was [X] yuan/ton. The crude oil production has been increasing continuously, the CP has declined, and due to the tariff friction, the PG - SC cracking spread has fluctuated widely [4] 3.8 Other Factors - In November, OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, which is lower than market expectations. The geopolitical premium has subsided, leading to a downward shift in the price center. The US government has been in a shutdown state, and on October 10, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China. China has countered the US 301 policy by imposing additional port storage fees on US - owned or operated ships [4] 3.9 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - The report provides the 2025 maintenance plans for Chinese major refineries, local refineries, LPG factories, and PDH devices, including information such as the refinery name, location, processing capacity, maintenance device, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [10][12] 3.10 Market Price and Spread - The report presents the prices, price changes, and spreads of various energy and chemical products, including LPG, as well as the price trends and spreads of LPG in different regions, months, and varieties [2][8][9] 3.11 Research Center Introduction - The Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures has a team of 6 members with professional backgrounds in finance, statistics, and chemical engineering. The team members have rich experience in industrial fundamentals and futures - spot research in the energy and chemical sector, and have won many awards from exchanges and media [132]