港股、海外周观察：特朗普关税再袭

Core Insights - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to increased volatility in the Hong Kong stock market in the short term, although a long-term upward trend remains intact [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be crucial for market sentiment, with potential for stronger recovery if policies exceed expectations [1] - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, driven by global monetary easing, the unstoppable trend of the AI industry, and anticipated improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings in Q1 of the following year [1][6] Market Performance - Over the past two weeks, developed markets have declined by 0.9%, while emerging markets have risen by 3.0% [5] - The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.6%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.0% [5][11] - The report notes that the materials sector led the gains, with significant inflows into non-essential consumer goods and information technology, while the telecommunications sector experienced outflows [5] Economic Data - Mixed macroeconomic data is presented, with positive indicators such as a 60,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and an ISM manufacturing index of 49.1, which is better than expected [3][6] - However, there are concerns with a 32,000 decrease in ADP employment and a services PMI drop to 50, indicating potential economic headwinds [3][6] Trade Relations - The report discusses the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which could further complicate market dynamics [2] - It also mentions China's retaliatory measures, including export controls on rare earth materials, which could impact various sectors [2] Investment Trends - The report indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven sectors due to tariff concerns and market volatility, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings [6][35] - The report highlights that technology, materials, and healthcare sectors are seeing the most inflows, while utilities and financials are experiencing outflows [7][39] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming data releases include the US CPI on October 15 and unemployment claims on October 16, which will be critical for assessing economic conditions [8][42] - Significant corporate earnings reports are also expected, including those from major companies like Haikang Weishi and Cambricon [8]