供需边际逐步转弱，螺矿盘面承压明显

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand margins of both rebar and iron ore are gradually weakening, putting significant pressure on the futures market. For rebar, the demand has declined, and the inventory has increased, while for iron ore, the short - term supply and demand situation has also shown signs of weakening [3][5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Futures: The rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation driven by the reduction of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3103 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% from last week [5]. - Spot: The mainstream rebar prices in most regions decreased slightly, and the overall trading weakened. The national average rebar price dropped 25 yuan to 3263 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 84.27%, down 0.02% week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.55%, down 0.10% week - on - week. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.06%, up 1.19% week - on - week. The rebar weekly output decreased by 3.62 tons to 203.4 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - Fundamentals - Demand: The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.16 tons to 10.49 tons week - on - week, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 95.06 tons to 146.01 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [6]. - Fundamentals - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 57.39 tons to 659.64 tons, still at a low level in the same period [8]. - Fundamentals - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 147 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, 1 yuan wider than last week. The rebar basis is expected to shrink in the future [8]. - Comprehensive Judgment: During the National Day, the decline in rebar apparent consumption and the increase in inventory were more significant than in previous years, and the supply - demand margin of rebar has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - Futures: The iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton or 0.63% from last week [8]. - Spot: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties increased slightly, and the price of domestic iron concentrate remained stable. The overall trading was average [8]. - Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 6th, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2825.9 tons, down 38.1 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2608.7 tons, up 248.2 tons week - on - week [8][9]. - Fundamentals - Demand: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports was 327.0 tons, down 9.4 tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 299.14 tons, up 0.33 tons week - on - week [9]. - Fundamentals - Inventory: As of the 9th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory continued to increase slightly to 14024.50 tons, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 tons to 9046.19 tons [9]. - Fundamentals - Basis: As of Friday, the optimal delivery product, Newman powder at Qingdao Port, was 830 yuan/ton, with a premium of 35 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, 3 yuan narrower than last week. The iron ore basis is expected to shrink in the future [9]. - Comprehensive Judgment: The short - term shipment of imported ore continues to decline slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to increase slightly next week. The supply - demand margin of iron ore has weakened, putting pressure on the market [9].