合成橡胶投资周报：宏观扰动再起，合成橡胶仍然弱势运行-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly, and cis - butadiene rubber has been suppressed by macro - sentiment, with price support faltering. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production capacity utilization, the synthetic rubber market is expected to be bearish in the short term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures contract and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, domestic butadiene production was 104,700 tons (up 1.08%), with a capacity utilization rate of 67.37%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while some others like Sinopec Korea Wuhan and Fujian United restarted, leading to a slight increase in domestic production [2] - Cis - butadiene rubber: Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant had a short - term shutdown for maintenance, while Shandong Yihua and Shandong Weite's plants restarted. Domestic private cis - butadiene rubber production increased [2][3] 3.2 Demand - Semi - steel tires: During the "Double Festival" holiday, private car travel increased, boosting terminal demand. Terminal stores' shipments increased significantly, and channel goods circulation improved. The market transaction price remained stable during the period [2] - All - steel tires: Due to the holiday, most merchants had short - term vacations, resulting in a decrease in channel trading volume. Most merchants focused on inventory digestion, and restocking was postponed. Terminal demand was weak [2] 3.3 Inventory - Butadiene: Last week, butadiene port inventory was 27,750 tons, with no change from the previous week. Refinery inventory decreased, and port inventory increased due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - Cis - butadiene rubber: The inventory of sample production enterprises slightly increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price - Cis - butadiene rubber: Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of October 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price in China was 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [2][3] - Butadiene: The price of butadiene continued its weak trend, with the ex - factory price and market price showing a downward trend [2][3][7] 3.5 Cost and Profit - Butadiene: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was - 194 yuan/ton, and the production profit of C4 extraction was 1,765.83 yuan/ton [2] - Cis - butadiene rubber: The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 364 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.15% [2] 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Oscillating upward - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]