塑料数据周报（PP、PE）-20251013

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For LLDPE, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [2]. - For PP, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - Supply: This week, China's LLDPE production was 318,900 tons, up 3.21% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from the previous period. There were no new maintenance devices this week, and some existing devices restarted [2]. - Demand: The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products increased by 1.64% from the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 8.9816 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. In August, China's polyethylene imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 488,600 tons, up 27.67% from the previous period. The inventory trend changed from decreasing to increasing. The social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.44% [2]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 315, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - Profit: This week, the cost of ethane production increased, while the costs of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production decreased. International oil prices fell due to the easing of the Palestine - Israel situation and potential risks from US tariff issues [2]. - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - Macro Policy: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend [2]. PP Analysis - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 77.75%, a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The average capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 79.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. - Demand: The operating rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the demand for terminal food packaging and medical non - woven fabrics increased [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 681,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.96%. The port sample inventory and the inventory of trading companies also increased [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 12, and the futures price is around par [3]. - Profit: This week, the profits of external propylene - based and PDH - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based PP production declined. International oil prices rose, and the price of thermal coal remained strong [3]. - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a premium [3]. - Macro Policy: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend [3]. Main Weekly Data Changes - Prices: PP futures price decreased by 1.90%, PE futures price decreased by 1.62%, PP spot price decreased by 2.61%, and LLDPE spot price decreased by 0.69% [5]. - Production: PP production decreased by 7.25%, PE production increased by 3.04%, HDPE production increased by 1.45% [5]. - Operating Rates: PP operating rate increased by 5.40%, PE operating rate increased by 2.26% [5]. - Inventory: PP factory inventory increased by 52.16%, PE social inventory decreased by 4.63% [5].