蛋白数据日报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Core View - Short - term, contract 001 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic bean meal inventory. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [7]. 2. Summary by Related Content Supply - Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA still has room for downward adjustment. The recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to the harvest, but the USDA crop growth report is delayed due to the US government shutdown. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress is 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate is 8.2%, higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybean inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the domestic bean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has high cost - performance and high feed addition ratio, and the downstream spot trading is good [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. This week, the bean meal inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased and is at a high level, while the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [7]. Macro and Policy - The Ministry of Transport announced that starting from October 14, a special ship selection fee will be charged for US ships, which is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump announced that starting from November 1, 2025, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imported goods, escalating the Sino - US trade tension [7]. 3. Data Summary Basis Data - On October 10, the basis of 43% bean meal spot in Dalian was 108, in Tianjin was 78 (up 17), in Rizhao was 8 (down 3), in Zhangjiagang was - 2 (down 3), in Dongguan was - 2 (up 7), in Zhanjiang was 38, and in Fangcheng was 18 (down 3). The basis of rapeseed meal spot at noon was 186, and MJ - 5 was 168 (down 16) [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 320 (down 10), and the spread of the main contract was 27 [5]. Other Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025, the domestic soybean inventory, oil mill bean meal inventory, feed enterprise bean meal inventory days, oil mill startup rate, and soybean crushing volume data are presented in the form of charts, but specific data values are not clearly summarized in the text [5].