20251013申万期货有色金属基差日报：可能偏强铜：锌：跟随铜价走势-20251013

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content [2] Group 2: Core Views - Copper may be on the stronger side, while zinc will follow the trend of copper prices [2] - For copper, the morning trading of US copper prices rebounded significantly. Affected by the escalation of Sino - US trade confrontation, copper prices dropped 3.29% during the weekend night session. Concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. Grid investment has continued positive growth, power source investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. The impact of the escalation of Sino - US trade confrontation may be less than that in April, and market sentiment will gradually stabilize [2] - For zinc, affected by the decline in copper prices, zinc prices dropped 0.72% during the weekend night session. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased on a weekly basis. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but it will follow the trend of copper prices in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 85,900 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 15 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 10,374 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 31.19 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 139,475 tons; LME inventory daily change: 275 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 20,980 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 60 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,746 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 12.06 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 508,600 tons; LME inventory daily change: 2,200 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,220 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 55 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,985 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 100.45 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 38,250 tons; LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 121,980 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 390 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 15,215 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 193.95 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 236,892 tons; LME inventory daily change: 4,260 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,100 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 195 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,015 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 38.22 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 237,450 tons; LME inventory daily change: 1,375 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 286,540 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 2,930 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 35,350 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 61.99 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 2,390 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 115 tons [2]