Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-13 05:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a stable performance with expected revenue growth and profit increase for listed banks in Q3 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is projected to experience a slight slowdown in revenue growth, with a forecasted year-on-year increase of 0.6% for the first nine months of 2025, compared to a 1% growth in the first half of 2025. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 0.8% year-on-year [3][4]. - State-owned banks and joint-stock banks are expected to maintain stable growth, while regional banks are anticipated to lead in profit growth, particularly in high-quality regions such as Jiangsu and Sichuan [3][4]. - The report highlights three core supports for stable profitability: the stabilization of net interest income, recovery of non-interest income from low levels, and stable asset quality ensuring sustainable profits [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q3 2025, state-owned banks are expected to see revenue growth of 1.3%, while joint-stock banks may experience a revenue decline of 2.4%. In contrast, city commercial banks are projected to achieve revenue and net profit growth of 5.8% and 8.2%, respectively [3][5]. - The report anticipates that the average loan interest rate for listed banks will stabilize around 3.7%, with a significant reduction in deposit costs contributing to this stability [4][5]. Non-Interest Income Analysis - The report notes that while non-interest income may decline by 10-20% in Q3 2025 due to rising bond market interest rates, the overall impact on cumulative revenue is expected to be limited due to favorable year-on-year comparisons [3][4]. - The recovery of fee income is highlighted as a potential driver for revenue improvement, with a projected year-on-year increase of 3% in non-interest income for the first half of 2025 [3][4]. Credit Growth and Asset Quality - Credit growth is expected to slow, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6% in RMB loans as of August 2025. The report indicates a cautious approach to retail lending, with a focus on corporate lending [3][4]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to remain stable at around 1.22%, with a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio to 238% [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading banks and high-quality regional banks as key investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of stable earnings growth as a foundation for value recovery in the banking sector [4][5].