集运指数（欧线）：短线延续弱势，回调找买点

Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is -1, indicating a weak outlook [16]. Core Viewpoints - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to remain weak in the short - term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [1]. - The market trading of the index is mainly influenced by three factors: the fundamental situation of the European Line, the expectation of route resumption, and the escalation of Sino - US tariffs [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: EC2510 closed at 1,121.1 with a 0.77% daily increase; EC2512 closed at 1,571.0 with a 3.04% daily decrease; EC2602 closed at 1,338.0 with a 5.17% daily decrease [1]. - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS European route index dropped 6.6% week - on - week to 1,046.50 points; the SCFIS US West route index dropped 4.8% week - on - week to 876.82 points. The SCFI European route index rose 10.0% bi - weekly to $1,068/TEU; the SCFI US West route index rose 0.5% bi - weekly to $1,468/FEU [1]. - Spot Freight: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route range from $1,800 - $2,220/40'GP and $1,080 - $1,605/20'GP [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.84, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - October: The weekly average shipping capacity was revised down from 26.5 to 25.7 million TEU/week due to many postponed sailings on the FE4 route. The spot market will mainly handle cargoes for weeks 43 and 44 next week, corresponding to shipping capacities of 29 and 33.5 million TEU respectively [11]. - November: The weekly average shipping capacity is currently 30.7 million TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), a 19% month - on - month increase and an 8.9% year - on - year increase. There are some changes in the suspension plans of different alliances [11]. - December: There are 6 pending and 3 empty voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 29.5 million TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), and there is room for significant revision [11]. 3. Spot Freight Forecast - In mid - to late October, the reduction of empty voyages by the PA Alliance eased the pressure on shipowners to attract cargo after the holiday, but the demand did not improve significantly. The SCFIS European route index on October 13 is expected to decline slightly or fluctuate. For week 43, except for the Gemini Alliance, other shipping companies may see their quotes fall further [12]. 4. Contract Analysis - 2510 Contract: It is expected to oscillate narrowly around 1100 points [12]. - 2512 Contract: Due to the escalation of trade frictions and the uncertainty of the trade war, it is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset (1400 - 1800 points), and look for unilateral low - buying opportunities next week [13]. - 2602 Contract: There is a divergence on whether to resume routes in February. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities and enter a long 02 - short 04 spread position with a light position [14]. 5. Impact of Counter - measures - China's counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharges are expected to have limited impact on the European Line's operating costs and supply. It may squeeze the living space of US - bound shipping companies in the long - term and increase the US - bound freight rates [15].