格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251013

1. Report on the Investment Rating of the Industry No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the vegetable oil sector, due to external macro - impacts such as the unexpected bearish supply - demand report of Malaysia in September, the weakening of international crude oil, and the end of pre - holiday stocking, the sector has shown a downward trend. Palm oil led the decline, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant to the decline. - In the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions, international crude oil price drops, and supply - demand imbalances, both are expected to have limited rebound space, and it is not advisable to chase high prices, but rather wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 10, affected by the unexpected bearish Malaysian September supply - demand report, the vegetable oil sector weakened. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with varying degrees of position reduction or increase. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8302 yuan/ton, down 0.36% day - on - day, and decreased positions by 1961 hands [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Thursday after the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China, affecting US soybean export sales. Argentina resumed the export tax on Thursday. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was to release an official monthly report on October 10. An industry survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September would decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is approaching the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, which will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, compared to 15.6 million kiloliters under the current B40 policy. - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.9% compared to the same period in September, with a significant increase in exports to China. - From October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 2.19% week - on - week but increased by 17.18% year - on - year [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9460 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the palm oil import profit was - 569.67 yuan/ton; the spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US trade disputes and the decline of international crude oil led to the weakening of US soybean oil, and the bearish Malaysian supply - demand report pressured Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, after the pre - holiday stocking ended, demand weakened. In terms of supply, soybean oil production was high, and the inventory might increase. Palm oil was in the process of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed oil had a relatively strong fundamental support due to the expected supply gap [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, a small number of new short positions in palm oil can be added. Wait for the adjustment to end before buying new long positions in rapeseed oil, and hold short positions in soybean oil. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [2]. 3.2 Two - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 10, the spot market of the two - meal was slow, and the futures market was under pressure. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all declined, with varying degrees of position increase. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 0.58% day - on - day, and increased positions by 57932 hands [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean reached 9% of the total sown area, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US 2025/26 soybean exports from October 2 would be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons, but the US Department of Agriculture postponed the release of the export sales report indefinitely due to the government shutdown. - The Trump administration was expected to announce a plan to rescue US farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary expenditures possibly reaching up to $15 billion. - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports were expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the total volume of 2024 and 2023. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans increased, while the inventory of imported rapeseed decreased. The inventory of domestic soybean meal increased, and the contract volume decreased; the inventory of imported rapeseed meal remained flat, and the contract volume increased [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 2980 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of - 2 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2413 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 179 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US economic and trade frictions and the decline of international crude oil pressured US soybeans. Trump planned to pressure China to resume US soybean purchases. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal was under pressure, and the demand was weak. For rapeseed meal, the approval of a company in Fujian to import Australian rapeseed had limited impact on the spot market, and the demand was limited as the aquaculture season was ending [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is not advisable to chase high prices during the rebound. Wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [3].