新花高压下阶段性寻底，长期或“先抑后扬”

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the cotton industry. Core Viewpoints - International market: The continuous absence of the Chinese import market has led to weak export demand for US cotton. The large number of unpriced buy orders at historical highs on the ICE market suppresses cotton price increases. In the short - to - medium term, ICE cotton prices are restricted. Although there is an expectation of improving the global inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2025/26 season, the upward push on cotton prices from a slight year - on - year production cut is limited without sufficient consumption support. Considering the relatively low price level and mainstream cost estimates, the downside space is limited, and there is a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center, subject to external macro - factors [3][80]. - Domestic market: In Q4, cotton prices are not optimistic, but caution is needed regarding the downside space. The record - high domestic new cotton production, early inspection and listing progress, weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment in Xinjiang, and cooling of foreign trade "rush to export" all limit cotton prices in the short term. However, in the long run, low commercial inventories and potential restocking demand from downstream textile enterprises and the US clothing market may drive cotton prices to "decline first and then rise," but the improvement in the price center may be conservative, and new - year industrial policies and foreign trade conditions need to be monitored [3][81]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of the Cotton Market in the First Three Quarters - Domestic market: In the first half of 2025, cotton prices showed a weakening trend due to loose supply and demand. The price was affected by Sino - US trade frictions. In the third quarter, prices fluctuated in a large range. Currently, the large supply of new - season cotton and weak downstream demand have led to a continuous decline in prices [9]. - International market: In the first three quarters of 2025, prices fluctuated between 60 - 70 cents per pound, with the amplitude affected by Sino - US trade wars. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persisted, and the large number of unpriced buy orders on the ICE market suppressed prices [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Supply and Demand Situation - According to the USDA September report, the global cotton inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 61.6%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. Global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 340,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. Total trade volume is expected to be 9.52 million tons. The global ending inventory is expected to be 15.93 million tons, a four - year low [11][12][13]. - In terms of adjustment expectations, the possibility of a production cut in the 2025/26 global cotton output is low, and it may still see a slight increase. Cotton consumption is positively correlated with global GDP growth, but there is high uncertainty due to factors such as the global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions [17][18]. 2.2 US Market Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 22, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants dropped to 47%, the boll - opening rate was 60%, and the harvesting progress reached 12%. The 2025 US cotton production is expected to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons [24]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative contracted export volume of US cotton for the 2025/2026 season was 925,000 tons, with a slow signing progress. However, there is still some elasticity in exports [27]. 2.3 Brazilian Market Supply and Demand Situation - Brazil's new cotton harvest is almost complete. The 2024/25 (corresponding to USDA's 2025/26) cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The export expectation is as high as 3.11 million tons, but the export volume in August 2025 was lower than in previous years [30]. Chapter 3: Domestic Cotton Market Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the Agricultural Rural Ministry and USDA data, there is a clear expectation of a bumper harvest in China's new cotton season in 2025/26. There is a view that consumption will weaken year - on - year. There are differences in the ending inventory expectations between the two institutions, but both expect a narrowing of the supply - demand gap compared to previous years [32][33]. 3.2 New - Season Planting - The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The national harvest progress as of the end of September was 1.5%, slightly faster than the same period last year. The large - scale harvest is expected to start in early October, and the peak listing time is postponed to late October. The expected opening price of seed cotton is low due to factors such as strong harvest expectations, low cottonseed prices, and weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment [36][39]. 3.3 Import Scale - In August 2025, China imported about 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 40%. From January to August, the total import volume was about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. The total import volume of cotton resources from January to August was only 44.76% of the same period in 2024. Future imports are expected to increase slightly but will still be limited [42][43]. 3.4 Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventories - As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased to 1.2718 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased to 649,800 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.1481 million tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity was about 120,000 tons, all lower than the same period last year. The inventory of downstream finished products is slightly lower than the same period, and enterprises have no obvious intention to stockpile [50][53]. 3.5 Downstream Startup and Order Situation - As of September 30, the spinning mill startup rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill startup rate was 37.8%, both lower than the same period last year. The order days of spinning enterprises were 15.42 days, also lower than the same period. Spinning profits vary greatly across varieties and enterprises, and the clothing and textile industry is facing intensified losses [56][57]. 3.6 Domestic Retail and Regional Transactions - In August, the retail sales of clothing - related enterprises showed a mild recovery, but the growth rate was lower than that of gold and silver jewelry and the overall social retail level. The transaction volume of cotton cloth in the light - textile market increased seasonally but was lower than the same period last year [61][62]. 3.7 Clothing and Textile Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing decreased by 0.2%. In August, exports decreased by 5%. Exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN showed different trends. The US clothing market started to restock slightly in the second half of the year, and there is still restocking space subject to Sino - US trade policies [68][72][76]. 3.8 Competitor Prices - The price difference between cotton yarn and staple fiber is at a medium - to - low level and shows a weak trend. The cotton market does not follow the chemical fiber market closely. In the long run, chemical fiber raw materials will continue to replace cotton [78]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook - International market: Short - to - medium - term ICE cotton prices are restricted, with limited downside space and a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center [80]. - Domestic market: Cotton prices are under pressure in Q4 but may "decline first and then rise" in the long run, with conservative expectations for the improvement in the price center [81].