2025年双粕四季度报告：贸易及南美种植多空交织阶段行情对待

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean Meal: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - Global Climate: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - US Soybeans: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - US Biodiesel: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - Brazilian Soybeans: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - Argentine Soybeans: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - Global Rapeseed: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - Soybean Imports: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - Soybean Meal Basis and Spread: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - Rapeseed Market Supply: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - National Feed Production: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - Pig Market: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - Meat Duck Inventory: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - Soybean Meal Market: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - Rapeseed Meal Market: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].