收益率大多下行，利差小幅波动：信用分析周报（2025/9/28-2025/10/11）-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from September 28 to October 11), the yield of most credit bonds declined, and the credit spread fluctuated slightly. The issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds decreased. The net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 16.1 billion yuan. The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds and AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose [1][2]. - Looking forward to October, the logic of loose liquidity persists, but institutional behavior and policy may restrict the performance of the credit bond market. Before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules, the credit allocation strategy should not be too radical. However, the resurgence of Sino - US trade friction may reduce market risk appetite and support the short - term credit long - making logic. It is recommended to allocate short - term bonds as the bottom position, increase the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds, and use bond repurchase to increase leverage to enhance portfolio returns [3][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - Net Financing Scale: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was - 112.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 269.9 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance volume was 131.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 459.7 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 243.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 189.9 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 billion yuan. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased [9]. - Issuance Cost: The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds returned above 3%, and the issuance rates of AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose above 2%. The increase was mainly due to the high - interest issuance of some bonds [16]. 3.2 Secondary Market - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: The trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 50.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The turnover rate of most bond types decreased, except for industrial bonds which remained unchanged [17]. - Yield: The yields of most credit bonds with different ratings and maturities declined, with the short - end decline greater than the medium - and long - end. By bond type, taking AA+ 5 - year bonds as an example, the yield of urban investment bonds rose, while the yields of other bond types declined [22][23]. - Credit Spread: The credit spread of AA commercial trade industry widened significantly, while the credit spreads of AA+ electronics and textile and clothing industries compressed significantly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 3BP. For urban investment bonds, the short - end spread compressed and the long - end spread widened. For industrial bonds, the short - end spread compressed slightly, and the spreads of other maturities widened. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds with maturities below 5 years compressed, while the 10 - year credit spread widened [2][6][24]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - Six entities had a total of 10 bond implicit ratings downgraded, including Suning.com Group Co., Ltd., Ruikang Pharmaceutical (Shandong) Co., Ltd., etc. The bond "H1 Lvjing 01" issued by Zhengxinglong Real Estate (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. was extended, and the bond "15 Tianan Property Insurance" issued by Tianan Property Insurance Co., Ltd. defaulted [2][36]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 133.04 billion yuan this week. The overnight capital rate remained low. It is recommended to be cautious in credit allocation before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules and adopt a strategy of short - end sinking as the bottom position and increasing the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds [39][40].