集运日报：中美贸易摩擦再起，外盘普遍大幅下跌，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade friction and the general sharp decline in the external market, it is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. The arbitrage strategy recommends waiting and seeing or trying with a light position due to large fluctuations. The long - term strategy is to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 876.82 points, down 4.8% from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Rate Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Rate Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service industry PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Main Contract Information - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Geopolitical Situation - On October 10, Israeli radio reported that the Israeli Defense Forces would soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as planned by President Trump. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has taken effect, but some reports claim that the Israeli military's attacks on multiple areas in Gaza continue [7]. - On the evening of October 9, local time, Hamas senior official and chief negotiator Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, stating that "the Gaza war is over" [7]. 3.5 Contract Policy Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].