股指周报：关税政策升级，A股受创-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the escalation of Sino - US tariff policies and Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China from November 1st led to a significant decline in Sino - US equity markets. High - tech stocks in A - shares that had strong previous gains fell significantly. The short - term investment strategy should focus on risk - aversion, and large - cap stocks may show more resilience [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influence Factors and Driving Forces - Economic and corporate earnings: Slightly bearish. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded but remained below the threshold. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6 [3]. - Macroeconomic policy: Slightly bullish. On the first trading day after the holiday, the central bank conducted an over - subscribed reverse repurchase operation of 11000 billion yuan for 91 days, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. There are also expectations for future policies [3]. - Overseas factors: Bearish. After the holiday, the escalation of Sino - US tariff policies led to a sharp decline in Sino - US equity markets. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China from November 1st [3]. - Liquidity: Neutral. As of October 9th, the margin trading balance in A - shares increased, and the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level. The average daily trading volume last week increased compared to the previous week [3][31]. - Investment Viewpoints and Strategies - Short - term investment should focus on risk - aversion. High - tech small - and medium - cap stocks may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as put options on the CSI 1000 can be considered. Large - cap blue - chip stocks in the CSI 300 and SSE 50 are expected to show more resilience [3]. - Trading strategy: Focus on risk - aversion in the single - side trading, and large - cap stocks may be more resilient [3]. PART TWO: Stock Index Market Review - Stock Index Performance - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.51% to 4616.8, the SSE 50 fell 0.47% to 2974.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.19% to 7398.2, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 7533.8 [5]. - Industry Index Performance - In the Shenwan primary industry index, non - ferrous metals (4.4%), steel (4.2%), public utilities (3.5%), building decoration (2.8%), and building materials (2.7%) led the gains, while media (-3.8%), electronics (-2.6%), power equipment (-2.5%), computer (-1.8%), and communication (-1.6%) led the losses [9]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures was 297998 lots, with a 7.68% increase; the trading volume of SSE 50 futures was 133649 lots, with a 0.34% increase; the trading volume of CSI 500 futures was 325864 lots, with a 12.76% increase; the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures was 447179 lots, with a 10.83% decrease [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures was 278581 lots, with a 6.27% increase; the open interest of SSE 50 futures was 105743 lots, with a 6.60% increase; the open interest of CSI 500 futures was 260074 lots, with a 5.40% increase; the open interest of CSI 1000 futures was 356927 lots, with a 1.50% increase [11]. - Spread Performance - The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 was at the 95.9% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at the 31.4% historical quantile level; the ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at the 35.7% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at the 28.1% historical quantile level [18]. PART THREE: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank conducted 11370 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 11000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchase operations. With 26633 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4263 billion yuan in the open market [25]. - Next week, 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits and 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases [25]. - Market Liquidity Indicators - As of October 9th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 24380.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 14.8%, at the 100% quantile level in the past decade [31]. - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 23334 billion yuan and 22454 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume increased by 3497 billion yuan compared to the previous week [31]. - As of October 10th, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.17, at the 47.4% quantile level in the past decade [31]. PART FOUR: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - Macroeconomic Indicators - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 from August; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0, down 0.3 from August [41]. - In terms of demand, new orders, new export orders, and production all showed marginal improvements, while in terms of price, the main raw material purchase price and ex - factory price decreased marginally [41]. - Industry - Specific Data - In the consumer sector, the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size showed different trends in various categories. For example, the sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and household appliances and audio - visual equipment had relatively high growth rates [37]. - In the manufacturing sector, different industries had different growth rates. For example, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace, and other industries had relatively high growth rates, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries had negative growth rates [38]. - Earnings of Major Indexes - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) of major broad - based indexes showed different trends. For example, the growth rate of the GEM index was relatively high, while the growth rate of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 index was negative [45]. PART FOUR: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driving - Recent Macro - Policy Trends - Multiple policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, real estate policies, consumer loan discount policies, and policies to support the capital market [50][51][52]. - The government has also increased the issuance of special bonds and provided funds for consumer replacement [50]. PART FIVE: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Indicators - In September, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 from the previous value [60]. - The US consumer confidence index in October was 55, up 0.1 from the previous value [60]. - In August, the US seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 2.2 million [64]. - In August, the US PCE increased by 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 2.91% year - on - year; the CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year [66]. - Trump Team's Statements and Actions - Trump has made a series of statements and actions regarding tariffs, including threatening to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China at different times [68].