沪铜周度报告：贸易摩擦升级，价格波动放大-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The escalation of Sino - US trade issues has made macro factors the short - term trading mainline, and copper prices have significantly corrected after the risk preference decreased. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental shortage logic will still push up the center of copper prices. The strategy is to buy on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - Weekly Data: - Copper concentrate spot TC increased from - 408 to - 403.6 dollars/ton, a 1.08% increase. The market was quiet during the National Day holiday, and attention should be paid to the result of the November long - term contract negotiation [7]. - The refined - scrap spread rose from 2085 to 3187 yuan/ton, a 52.81% increase. After the holiday, copper prices soared, but downstream procurement was weak, leading to a significant increase in the spread [7]. - The southern crude copper processing fee increased from 800 to 1000 yuan/ton, a 25% increase. Some enterprises switched to anode plate production, supporting the processing fee [7]. - The operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable all declined due to the holiday and high copper prices after the holiday [7]. - Copper concentrate port inventory available days increased from 5.5 to 5.9 days, a 7.05% increase. Global visible inventory increased, mainly from COMEX and domestic inventory, while LME inventory decreased [7]. - Electrolytic copper social inventory, bonded area inventory, and the sum of the two all increased. SHFE copper inventory increased by 344.36%, LME copper inventory decreased by 0.77%, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 3.81%. The global total inventory increased slightly by 0.44% [7]. - Smelting comprehensive profit (spot) increased from - 3842 to - 3176 yuan/ton, a 17.35% increase; smelting comprehensive profit (long - term contract) increased from - 523 to 139 yuan/ton, a 126.60% increase. Import profit decreased from - 652 to - 705 yuan/ton, an 8.23% decrease [7]. - Comprehensive Logic: The escalation of Sino - US trade friction due to Trump's tariff remarks initially lowered market risk preference, but then the market sentiment recovered. Fundamentally, the tightness of copper mines supports copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the shortage logic will push up copper prices [9]. - Strategy: Buy on dips for unilateral trading [9]. - Variables: Trump's tariff policy escalation, the US economic downturn exceeding expectations, changes in interest - rate cut expectations, and weakening demand [9]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - Price, Spread, Cost, and Profit: - Data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper price difference, and other price - related indicators are presented, as well as information on electrolytic copper import price spreads, industry cost - profit indicators such as electrolytic copper comprehensive profit and import profit [11][16][18]. - Supply and Demand: - Supply: Data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, scrap copper imports, crude copper imports, electrolytic copper production, and imports are provided [25][27][28]. - Demand: - Copper Rod - Cable: Operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable are shown, along with data on copper rod raw material inventory and finished product inventory ratio [30]. - Cable Terminal - Power Grid: Data on cumulative and monthly power grid and power source investment completion amounts are presented [32][34]. - Copper Tube - Air Conditioner: Data on the operating rate of copper tubes, raw material inventory ratio, finished product inventory, and household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and exports are provided [41]. - Copper Plate and Strip: Data on the operating rate, raw material inventory, and raw material inventory ratio of copper plate and strip are presented [43][45][47]. - Terminal - Automobile: Data on monthly automobile and new - energy vehicle production and sales are provided [49][50]. - Brass Rod - Real Estate: Data on the operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, and housing completion area are presented [53][54]. - Inventory: Data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, LME electrolytic copper inventory, and global refined copper inventory are provided [57]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - External Market Position: - CFTC non - commercial net long position shows a strengthening trend recently, with the non - commercial long - position ratio at 32% [67]. - LME investment fund net long position is 36768.23 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1814.84 lots [67].