有色金属周报：美联储降息预期提升，有色板块冲高回落-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have increased, and the non - ferrous metals sector has initially risen but then fallen. The prices of different non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as macro - economy, raw material supply, smelting, demand, and inventory, showing different trends and investment outlooks [2] - For copper, short - term prices may fall after a sharp rise, and it is expected to fluctuate. For zinc, short - term macro - disturbances increase, and the investment view is bearish. For nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors like Sino - US trade frictions and uncertain policies [9][95][195] 3. Summary by Directory 01. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Each metal shows different daily, weekly, and annual price changes [7] 02. Copper (CU) - Macro Factors: Neutral to bearish. The US government shutdown, poor ADP employment data, and Sino - US trade frictions have increased market uncertainty and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [9] - Raw Material End: Bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the suspension of a major copper mine in Indonesia has tightened the supply [9] - Smelting End: Neutral to bullish. The losses of smelters using spot and long - term copper ore have both narrowed, and the copper output in September decreased and is expected to continue to decline in October [9] - Demand End: Bearish. The sharp rise in copper prices and the holiday have led to a significant decline in the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods [9] - Inventory: Bearish. Both domestic and foreign copper inventories have increased [9] - Investment View: The price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a short - term decline [9] - Trading Strategy: Short - term bullish for single - side trading, and consider domestic positive arbitrage [9] 03. Zinc (ZN) - Macro Factors: Bearish. Sino - US trade frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of a decline in global asset prices [95] - Raw Material End: Neutral. Domestic and imported processing fees show different trends, and the purchasing enthusiasm of smelters for imported ores is not high [95] - Smelting End: Neutral. The refined zinc output in September decreased, and it is expected to increase in October [95] - Demand End: Neutral. The "Silver October" peak season has limited expectations, and the downstream raw material procurement sentiment is weak [95] - Inventory: Bearish. Social inventories have increased after the holiday, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline [95] - Investment View: Bearish. Although the export window is almost open, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [95] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external reverse arbitrage [95] 04. Nickel & Stainless Steel (NI & SS) - Macro Factors: Bearish. The Sino - US trade friction has resurfaced, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased [195][196] - Raw Material End: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB approval system in Indonesia has changed, the nickel ore premium is firm, and the domestic port inventory has increased [195][196] - Smelting End: Neutral. The output of pure nickel remains high, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the production of Indonesian nickel iron has slightly recovered [195][196] - Demand End: Neutral. The price of stainless steel fluctuates, the production of steel mills recovers limitedly, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The new energy demand remains high [195][196] - Inventory: Neutral to bearish. Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate [195][196] - Investment View: Weak in the short term. Pay attention to macro - factors and policy changes in resource - rich countries [195][196] - Trading Strategy: Trade in a range for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage in the nickel market; Sell on rallies for single - side trading and no arbitrage in the stainless - steel market [195][196]