聚酯周报：基本面与情绪共振，化工下跌聚酯跟随-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", suggesting a lack of clear driving forces and an expected period of mainly oscillatory movement [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is experiencing a situation where fundamentals and sentiment are in resonance, leading to a decline in the chemical sector, with polyester following suit. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and others are influencing the market, and overall, the market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Some ports are responding to sanctions, causing disruptions in China's crude oil imports. The optimization demand for oil products may be better than the chemical demand. For the PTA segment, the domestic PTA device supply has slightly contracted, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the PX device operating rate has been stable. However, due to sentiment disruptions, costs have weakened, and polyester is expected to decline accordingly [4]. - Demand: The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 90%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, with the main increase in polyester load concentrated in the bottle - chip variety, and the weaving - end load has remained stable [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased by 50,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up during the holiday [4]. - Basis: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is very loose [4]. - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha has reached $220, and the PTA processing fee has remained at around 200 yuan, with a slight expansion [4]. - Valuation: The PTA price is at a moderately low level. After the domestic maintenance season ended, the reforming device has gradually recovered, but attention should be paid to the disruptions to the PX raw material supply caused by the current sanctions [4]. - Macro Policy: The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a legal investigation into Qualcomm for suspected violations of the Anti - Monopoly Law due to its failure to legally report the concentration of business operators in its acquisition of Autotalks [4]. - Investment View: There are no obvious driving forces, and the market is expected to mainly oscillate [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - The market anticipates an oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, as OPEC+ increases production, the surplus is expected to further increase to 2.3 million barrels per day. China has been increasing its SPR strategic reserves, adding to the global additional demand for crude oil. Most of the current crude oil increments come from the Middle East, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [24]. - The US government shutdown may affect gasoline demand during the off - season. North American refineries are operating at high loads. As winter approaches and the North American RVP changes, the increasing demand for butane blending may make it difficult to maintain gasoline profits. The change in North American cracking spreads may affect Asian gasoline cracking spreads, and the cracking spreads in major global regions may weaken [50]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's new device, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons has increased. The profit from selective disproportionation has declined. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, and the operating rate of PX has significantly recovered [33][63]. - The price of pure benzene is suppressing the disproportionation profit. The supply of MX is expected to increase starting in October, and the future domestic xylene capacity addition will continue at a high rate. In 2026, a total of 1.7 million tons of xylene devices from several companies are waiting to be commissioned [63]. - The processing fee of PTA has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%, indicating optimistic market demand. Mainstream PTA factories have planned to reduce production, and the PTA operating rate may further improve, but it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [70]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene Glycol: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weakly operating. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is still at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are limited, the overseas import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and the commissioning of domestic new devices has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has recovered, and the device load has increased [77][83]. - Gasoline: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation impacts [85]. - Polyester: Polyester has continued to maintain a high load, and the production of polyester has increased while the downstream has entered the off - season [91][99].