期货市场交易指引：2025年10月13日-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - finance: Index futures are long - term optimistic, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5][6] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass suggests buying on dips [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions on dips; aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin suggests range trading; gold suggests buying on dips; silver suggests range trading [1][10][11][17][18][19][20][21] - Energy and chemical industry: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash suggests a short - selling strategy [1][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750; apples and jujubes are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][35][36][37][38] - Agricultural and livestock industry: Pigs and eggs suggest shorting on rallies; corn suggests wide - range oscillations; soybean meal suggests range oscillations; oils are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][40][43][45][47][49] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has short - term fluctuations due to factors such as Trump's remarks on tariffs and geopolitical events, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The long - term trends of industries like AI in China and the US are clear, and the US monetary and fiscal policies are in force [5] - In the commodity market, different products have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment impacts 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Index futures: They are expected to oscillate and are long - term optimistic. Due to trade concerns, geopolitical events, and other factors, there may be short - term fluctuations, but full - scale panic is unlikely. Investors can either wait for better opportunities or lock in positions [5] - Treasury bonds: They should be kept under observation. Trump's remarks on retaliatory measures may cause short - term oscillations [6] 3.2 Black building materials - Coking coal: It is expected to oscillate. Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend [8] - Rebar: It is expected to oscillate. Currently, the price is under the cost of electric - arc furnace valley electricity and long - process production. In October, the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [8] - Glass: It suggests buying on dips. Although the current market has some supply - demand problems, under the background of policy expectations, the glass price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - Copper: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. Due to the intensification of Sino - US trade tensions, the price has dropped significantly recently, but the long - term supply - demand situation is still optimistic [10][11] - Aluminum: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is entering the peak season. Long positions can be held [12] - Nickel: It is expected to oscillate. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has some uncertainties for the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of nickel is in surplus, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [17] - Tin: It is expected to oscillate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - Gold and silver: They are expected to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm payroll data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are rising. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price pullbacks [19][20][21] 3.4 Energy and chemical industry - PVC: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is under pressure, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the pressure at 4850 [22][23] - Caustic soda: It is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the range of 2380 - 2530. The market is affected by factors such as upstream inventory and downstream demand [24][25] - Styrene: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it focuses on the range of 6600 - 6900 [26][27] - Rubber: It is expected to oscillate. The supply growth expectation is strong, and it focuses on the support at 15000 [28][29] - Urea: It is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating [30] - Methanol: It is expected to oscillate. The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is increasing [32] - Polyolefins: They are expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The L2601 contract focuses on the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract focuses on the support at 6600 [31][32][33] - Soda ash: The 01 contract suggests a short - selling strategy. The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the inventory is accumulating [33][34] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: They are expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand situation has some changes, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US relations [35][36] - PTA: It suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, the price is weakly oscillating [36] - Apples and jujubes: They are expected to be strongly oscillating. Apples are affected by weather, and jujubes are affected by factors such as production areas and market demand [37][38] 3.6 Agricultural and livestock industry - Pigs: They are overall under pressure. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the price is weak in the short - term. Different contracts have different investment strategies [40][42] - Eggs: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term supply is sufficient, the demand is weakening, and different contracts have different investment strategies [43][44][45] - Corn: It suggests range oscillations. It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is affected by factors such as new crop listing and demand [45][46] - Soybean meal: The rebound is limited. The US soybeans are affected by factors such as harvest pressure and Sino - US talks, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations [47][48] - Oils: They are in high - level adjustment. Short - term回调 risks are increasing, and it is recommended to wait for the end of the回调 before considering long positions [49][50][54]