螺矿产业链周度报告-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices oscillated and rebounded in the two trading days this week, supported by positive macro - sentiment. The overall fundamentals of steel are weak, but expectations are strong before the meeting. Steel prices are expected to move in a range - bound manner, with caution for adjustment pressure if the meeting fails to meet expectations [5][50]. - Iron ore prices showed a strong performance this week. With supply decreasing and demand remaining strong, and port inventory slightly accumulating without significant pressure, iron ore prices are expected to move in a strong - oscillatory manner, subject to downstream demand improvement [5][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The US federal government shut down on October 1st, delaying economic data releases. China issued policies to manage price competition and introduced industry growth plans [5]. - Key Data: The EU announced steel import restrictions, raising tariffs from 25% to 50%. The WTO downgraded the 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 0.5%. China's September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points [5]. - Main Views: Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Iron ore prices are supported by supply - demand factors and macro - drivers [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - For Rebar: Bullish factors include positive market sentiment, policy expectations, and cost support. Bearish factors are policy under - performance, a significant drop in apparent demand, and inventory accumulation [8]. - For Iron Ore: Bullish factors are positive market sentiment, policy expectations, high hot - metal production, and reduced shipments. Bearish factors are policy under - performance, a drop in apparent demand, and declining steel mill profits [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Macro - level: Concerns include the resolution of the US government shutdown and economic data releases. China's September manufacturing PMI improved, and holiday consumption was strong. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on the 15th Five - Year Plan [10][13][15]. - Rebar - related: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis narrowed. Steel mill profitability declined, with a high blast - furnace start - up rate and a rising electric - furnace start - up rate. Steel production decreased slightly, apparent demand dropped seasonally, inventory accumulated above the seasonal norm, and the coil - rebar spread declined [18][20][22]. - Iron - ore - related: Spot prices rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. August imports increased slightly, and weekly shipments decreased. Weekly arrivals increased, hot - metal production remained high, port inventory slightly accumulated, and steel mills' inventory decreased during the holiday [33][35][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Steel: Despite weak fundamentals, expectations are strong before the meeting. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with attention to the meeting's outcome [50]. - Iron Ore: With supply - demand support, iron ore prices are expected to move in a strong - oscillatory manner, depending on downstream demand improvement [52].