Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton compared to before the holiday. The approaching end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening alumina price pressured the ore price down. The operating capacity of alumina remained stable at 98.55 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the national alumina inventory increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons on a weekly basis. The newly put - into - operation alumina capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, and the alumina industry is in a high - stable production situation. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, rising by 15,000 tons to 44.454 million tons compared to before the holiday. The second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project was restored, but the increase in the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in October was very limited. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. Although the double - festivals affected the downstream start - up, the peak demand season remained unchanged, and the operating rates of various downstream processing sectors would continue to rise. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory during the double - festivals was within the normal level and did not exceed expectations. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, the demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, and the operating rate continued to rise. Trump's signal on China - related tariffs raised market panic, causing declines in the commodity and stock markets. The short - term aluminum price may continue to be under pressure and decline, and long - position holders should pay attention to risk avoidance. However, Trump may be adding bargaining chips for the China - US leaders' APEC meeting in October, and the progress of the event and market sentiment should be monitored [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation - adjusted yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (including the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates) [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision, enhanced environmental inspections, and the rainy season have restricted bauxite mining activities. Since mid - August, after the gradual consumption of domestic ore inventory, it has become a common practice in the industry for alumina plants to increase the use of imported ores. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton. The large Guinea mining enterprises' long - term order quotes for the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The sea freight is adjusted according to the oil price fluctuations, and the estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, also unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating rate was 85.9%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,937.7 yuan per ton, down 25.3 yuan per ton compared to before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons on a weekly basis. Newly put - into - operation capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions has entered a stable production state [15]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.454 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from before the holiday. Although the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, the increase in October was expected to be very limited. On September 29, the second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the 200,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum energy - saving renovation project of Baise Guangtou Yinhai was successfully restored [24]. 5. Inventory - The document shows the historical data of social inventories of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventories, and LME aluminum inventories from 2021 to 2025 [30][31][32][33]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.3% to 58.9% compared to before the holiday. Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local government's illegal tax rebates. The production arrangements of recycled aluminum enterprises during the holiday were relatively stable, and most enterprises did not stop production or only had a short - term shutdown of 1 - 3 days. The market demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, especially for aluminum - water - based orders. However, downstream enterprises' procurement was still cautious, mainly focusing on consuming pre - holiday inventory and replenishing stocks as needed. Policy uncertainty and raw material shortage risks still restricted the start - up of some enterprises [38]. 7. Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 53.6%. The resumption of production of some enterprises in East and South China after the holiday was less than expected. In the industrial profile sector, some leading enterprises had good order arrangements for photovoltaic frames in early October; for automotive profiles, new orders remained stable. In the construction profile sector, the market demand was still weak. For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 68%. During the double - festivals, most leading enterprises maintained normal production. However, some enterprises producing building curtain wall panels had production line rotations or overhauls due to capital chain pressure and longer payment terms, while the demand for industrial plates such as automotive plates and battery shells was stable, and the production lines were basically operating at full capacity. For aluminum cables, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 3% to 64%. Although leading enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, most enterprises reduced their operating rates, and the restricted logistics during the double - festivals led to the backlog of finished product inventories. With the end of the holiday and the resumption of logistics, combined with the release of traditional rush - work demand in the fourth quarter, the operating rate is expected to rebound. For primary aluminum alloys, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 58%. Some enterprises reduced their operating rates due to lower - than - expected downstream demand, and some enterprises maintained their original production rhythms due to unclear post - holiday order situations [51][55]. 8. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: Long - position holders should avoid risks. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Long - position holders should avoid risks or go long on ADC and short on AL [5].
铝产业链周报-20251013
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-13 06:20