长江期货粕类油脂周报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the US soybean stocks-to-use ratio is tightening, and prices are expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. China's soybeans from September to October have sufficient arrivals, and the spot price is weak. From November to January, the outlook for Sino-US trade improvement is dim, and the price is expected to rise. The M2601 contract price is expected to increase slightly [6]. - For oils, in the short term, the intensification of Sino-US disputes has increased macro risks, and oil prices are expected to follow the external market to correct. However, after the macro factors subside, there is still a possibility of a rebound [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Section 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of October 11, the spot price in East China was 2930 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the M2601 contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the basis price increased by 60 yuan/ton [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, and the yield is expected to be lowered. Brazil's sowing progress is faster than the same period. China's supply is abundant in October, but there is a risk of supply shortage in the first quarter of next year if US soybean imports cannot continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, China's aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents per bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from the US Gulf is 2990 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3160 yuan/ton [6][49]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - The price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. The price of the M2601 contract is expected to increase slightly, and the strategy is to operate in the range of [2900, 3030] [6]. 3.2 Oil Section 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of October 10, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts all increased compared to before the National Day holiday, and the basis also increased [79][80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report was bearish, but the export data in October was strong. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel test provided support. China's palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply in October is sufficient [79]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Sino-US trade disputes have dampened the prospects of US soybean exports to China. China's soybean supply is sufficient until October, which suppresses soybean oil prices. The supply gap after November has narrowed [79]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Anti-dumping measures have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November. However, policy uncertainties, high domestic inventories, and alternative imports limit price increases [79]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are expected to correct, but there is a possibility of a rebound later. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long, and pay attention to the evolution of Sino-US trade relations [79].