铜周报20251012：关税担忧再袭、沪铜回调，深度预计有限-20251013

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint There is a concern about tariffs again, leading to a correction in Shanghai copper prices, but the expected depth of the decline is limited [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - The Shanghai copper market rallied after the holiday, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened on a weekly basis [11] Fundamental Data - On October 10, the spot TC for copper concentrates was about -$40.7/ton, still at a low level [15] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24] - After the holiday, both the spot inventory and bonded area inventory of electrolytic copper increased [25] - LME copper inventory decreased on a weekly basis, while COMEX copper inventory increased on a weekly basis [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased significantly on a weekly basis this week, as the post - holiday copper price rally suppressed consumption and dragged down the operating rate [28] - From September 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 16% year - on - year [31] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [32] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual figure of the same period last year [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, rebounding for the second consecutive month [37] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [39] - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts [40]