日度策略参考-20251013

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Sideways [1] - Copper: Sideways [1] - Aluminum: Sideways [1] - Alumina: Sideways [1] - Zinc: Sideways [1] - Nickel: Sideways [1] - Industrial Silicon: Sideways [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] - Rebar: Sideways [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [1] - Ferro - Silicon: Sideways [1] - Coke: Sideways [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways [1] - Palm Oil: Sideways [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Corn: Bearish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Pulp: Sideways [1] - Logs: Bullish [1] - Live Hogs: Bearish [1] - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel Oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - Natural Rubber: Sideways [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - Fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bullish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - Refinery Gasoline: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - Caustic Soda: Bearish in short - term, Bullish in medium - term [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - Container Shipping: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of Sino - US tariff policies may cause significant shocks and fluctuations to small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology stock weights, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices dominated by large - cap blue - chip stocks are expected to show stronger resilience [1] - Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1] - Sino - US trade uncertainties provide support for gold, while silver may experience short - term sideways adjustments [1] - Due to the escalation of global trade frictions and rising risk - aversion sentiment, base metals may face correction risks, but some metals have different fundamental factors [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical situation changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations affect product prices [1] - In the agricultural products sector, factors like supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions influence prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1] - Sino - US trade uncertainties provide support for gold, while silver may experience short - term sideways adjustments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Sino - US trade frictions and rising risk - aversion sentiment may cause the non - ferrous metals sector to face correction risks [1] - For different non - ferrous metals, factors such as inventory changes, production policies, and supply - demand relationships vary [1] Industrial Products - In the industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, factors such as production schedules, capacity changes, and market sentiment affect prices [1] - In the steel and iron sectors, factors such as production restrictions, seasonal demand, and inventory levels influence prices [1] - In the coke and coking coal sectors, the price trends are affected by factors such as market expectations and trading behavior [1] Agricultural Products - In the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil sectors, factors such as production reports, export policies, and international market trends affect prices [1] - In the cotton, sugar, and corn sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, new product listings, and policy expectations influence prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - In the crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt sectors, factors such as OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical situation changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations affect prices [1] - In the rubber, PTA, and ethylene glycol sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, production schedules, and market sentiment influence prices [1] - In the short - fiber, styrene, and urea sectors, factors such as production resumption, market transactions, and cost factors affect prices [1] - In the caustic soda and LPG sectors, factors such as production plans, inventory levels, and international market prices influence prices [1] Others - In the container shipping sector, factors such as price levels, market rhythms, and cost lines affect price trends [1]