原油周报（SC）：关税威胁扰动需求预期，油价延续弱势表现-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. Trump's tariff threat on China will cause short - term oil prices to continue to show a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - Long Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global or regional crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,553 million barrels per day, an increase of 234 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3]. - Demand (Medium - Long Term): Different institutions have different views on demand. EIA, OPEC, and IEA have either increased or maintained their forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025, with an overall increase compared to 2024 [3]. - Inventory (Short Term): In the week ending October 3, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels, while the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [3]. - Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term): OPEC+ eight countries agreed to increase the daily crude oil production by 137,000 barrels in November, and the IEA pointed out that the crude oil market may shift from a tight balance to a slight surplus in the future [3]. - Geopolitical (Short Term): The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, and a Russian refinery was attacked, which is expected to take about a month to resume operations [3]. - Macro - finance (Short Term): Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the October meeting [3]. - Investment View: Bearish. Short - term oil prices will be weak and volatile [3]. - Trading Strategy: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Change Review - Prices: SC crude oil, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and other major oil product prices all declined this week, with declines ranging from 2.62% to 4.04% [5]. - Inventory: US + European + Singapore oil product inventories, Chinese oil product inventories, and other data have changed to varying degrees. For example, US gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 4.66% [5]. - Refinery Operating Rate: The operating rates of Chinese and US refineries have increased, while the operating rate of Japanese refineries has decreased [5]. - Crude Oil Production: US crude oil production decreased by 0.76% [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - Market Review: This week, oil prices showed a weak decline. Factors such as the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and Trump's tariff threat have led to a bearish sentiment in the market [9]. - Month - spread & Internal - external Spread: The month - spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10]. - Forward Curve: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [22]. - Crack Spread: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [30][40]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production - OPEC: In August 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased compared to July [59]. - Non - OPEC: The production of non - OPEC countries also increased [61]. - US: As of the week ending October 3, US domestic crude oil production increased to 13.629 million barrels per day [84]. - Inventory - US: US commercial inventory increased, and Cushing inventory decreased [85]. - Northwest Europe and Singapore: Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [94]. - China: Some Chinese oil product inventories and port inventories have changed [104]. - Demand - US: Gasoline implicit demand rebounded, and refinery operating rate increased slightly [111]. - China: The refinery capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [121]. - China's Refinery Profit: The gross profit of major refineries and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined [129]. - Macro - finance: The Fed cut interest rates, and the US dollar index rebounded [142]. - CFTC Position: The net short position of WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [151].