纯苯&苯乙烯周报：原油弱势，纯苯苯乙烯跟随成本下行-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for styrene is "oscillation", with an expected bearish trend as the cost weakens [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and pure benzene and styrene follow the cost down. The supply of styrene increases after the maintenance period ends, while the demand is poor both domestically and overseas. The inventory situation is mixed, and the profit and basis are bearish. The overall market for pure benzene and styrene is under pressure [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. After the maintenance period, styrene supply increases. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene rebounds to $150. Asian producers' economy remains negative. The market has poor expectations for the downstream [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Pure benzene has a slight de - stocking. The supply side increases significantly after the maintenance ends, and Yulong Petrochemical's device is about to be put into production. Overseas demand is still declining due to the low operating rate of derivatives [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples is 201,900 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons from the previous period, a +2.23% increase. The commercial inventory is 116,400 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous period, an +8.99% increase [4]. - Basis: Bearish. The styrene basis is stable at around 30 - 40. There is an expected inventory build - up for pure benzene and styrene, and the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device will put obvious pressure on the market [4]. - Profit: Bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene drops to $150 [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and overseas pure benzene continues to flow in. Styrene device supply is sufficient [4]. - Macro Policy: Bearish. On October 9 local time, a US federal judge approved a partial restraining order to temporarily prevent the Trump administration from deploying the National Guard in Illinois [4]. - Investment View: Oscillation. Styrene cost weakens, expected to be mainly bearish [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait - and - see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - Crude Oil: Supply increases, and prices continue to decline [6]. - Styrene: The profit of styrene integrated plants declines. After the festival, the port inventory of styrene rises slightly [15][26]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by weak overseas demand, the price of pure benzene runs weakly [38]. 3.3 Part Three: Overview of Polymer Demand - Styrene Downstream - ABS: The demand for domestic styrene downstream polymers is okay, with stable capacity utilization and production profit [52]. - Styrene Downstream - PS: Inventory accumulates, and profit declines [64]. - Styrene Downstream - EPS: The load decreases, and inventory slightly decreases [74]. - Pure Benzene - Aniline: The load increases, and the profit slightly rebounds [84]. - Pure Benzene - Phenol: The port inventory declines [93]. - Pure Benzene - Adipic Acid: Production increases, but profit is difficult to expand [103]. - Pure Benzene - Caprolactam: The price drops [114]. - Appliance: The year - on - year export demand for household appliances declines [123].