天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)：宏观事件再生扰动，橡胶延续弱势表现-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - events have introduced new disturbances, and rubber has continued its weak performance. Although there is cost support due to rainfall in production areas and a decline in mid - stream inventory, and the downstream operating rate may rebound after the holiday, external macro - disturbances are negative, so it may maintain a weak performance in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is rated as "neutral". In domestic production areas, raw material release in Yunnan was slow due to rain during the festival, and prices were weak. In Hainan, raw material supply was tight due to rain. In Thailand, heavy rainfall may affect raw material supply, and in Vietnam, although the weather improved, production had not fully recovered, and inventory was low [3] - Demand: It is rated as "neutral". As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points). It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will rebound next week [3] - Inventory: It is rated as "relatively high". As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.1 tons, and that of light - colored rubber was 42.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% [3] - Basis/Spread: It is rated as "neutral". After the festival, the RU - mixed spread rebounded and expanded, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts also increased slightly [3] - Profit: It is rated as "relatively high". The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex was in a loss state but stable, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex was still in a loss state but recovered significantly [3] - Valuation: It is rated as "bearish". The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - Commodity Market: It is rated as "neutral". The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the previous optimistic sentiment has subsided. The domestic commodity market currently lacks drivers, and market sentiment is weak [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed contract [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: After the festival, natural rubber stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 10, the RU main contract closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 285 yuan/ton (+1.90%), and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,350 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 250 yuan/ton (+2.07%) [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded [9] - Disk Position: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased [17][24] - Disk Spread: The RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [33] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [41] - Upstream Raw Materials: The price of cup rubber rebounded [50] - Main - Producing Country Output: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63] - Main - Producing Country Exports: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73] - China's Imports: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+19.47%). In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [86][93] - Mid - Stream Inventory: China's social inventory decreased significantly. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%) [103][110] - Downstream Tire Demand: After the festival, the tire capacity utilization rate may rebound. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points) [111][119] - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In August, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [125][136] - Tire Exports: From January to August, China exported 6.19 million tons of rubber tires (+5.1%). In August, the export volume was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [137] - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and the delivery profit of full - latex were in a loss state [147]