烧碱周报（SH ）：现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory state [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price continues to decline. Supply is affected by increased maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in production. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. Inventory has increased, and the overall market situation is complex, with the short - term market expected to oscillate [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance increased, and production decreased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production decreased by 0.2 million tons to 83 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In some regions, such as the Northwest and North China, the load decreased [3] - Demand: It is in the seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased slightly, and the overall production of lithium hydroxide was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3] - Inventory: The shipment pressure has increased recently, and caustic soda inventory has accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more has increased [3] - Investment View: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate [3] - Trading Strategy: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures: The futures price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined significantly after the holiday. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The profit of chlor - alkali is at a high level, and the factory's operating load is maintained at a high level. With the increase in new maintenance this week, production has decreased. Post - holiday demand has improved slightly, and the supply pressure of caustic soda is expected to ease [9] - Spot: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. The subsidy for liquid chlorine is low, and the price has dropped to - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali is good [9] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price has stabilized [34] - Upstream Production: Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [37] - Main Production Area Output: Maintenance in North China has increased, and production has decreased [40] - Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased [41] - Downstream Price: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [44] - Alumina: The start - up rate of alumina has recovered, and inventory has accumulated. The start - up rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices [56][57] - Non - Aluminum Demand: The start - up of non - aluminum industries is stable but lower than the same period last year. It has entered the seasonal off - peak, and the start - up rate has begun to decline [66][67] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The start - up rate has rebounded [74] - Maintenance Plan: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in September and October, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [77]